Microsoft Is Down Some 12% YTD. What Can Its Chart Tell Us?Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTmoomooMicrosoft MSFT is set to report earnings this week at a time when the "Magnificent Seven" stock is down by double digits in percentage terms year to date. Let's see what its chart and fundamentals are saying. Microsoft's Fundamental Analysis While MSFT has rallied along with the broader market so far in April, 2025's second half wasn't kind to Microsoft bulls -- and 2026 hasn't been so far, either. As I write this, the tech giant's stock is down some 12% year to date vs. a 4% gain for the S&P 500. The red ink comes as the firm prepares to report fiscal Q3 results after the bell on Wednesday, with the Street looking for $4.07 in adjusted earnings per share on $81.4 billion of revenue. Numbers like that would represent a 17.6% increase from the $3.46 in adjusted EPS that MSFT posted in the year-ago period, as well as more than 16% of year-over-year revenue growth. If those forecasts prove accurate, the numbers would represent Microsoft's fourth consecutive quarter of 16% or better y/y revenue gains since the firm exited an early 2025 sales-growth slump. All in, 23 of the 29 sell-side analysts that I know of to track MSFT have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while the remaining six have reduced their estimates. Microsoft's Technical Analysis So, is it time to re-engage with MSFT? Let's go to its chart, running back some 12 months through last Wednesday afternoon (April 22): Readers will first note that Microsoft saw a double-top pattern of bearish reversal this past summer and autumn, as marked by two red boxes at the chart's left and center. As would be expected with this pattern, the stock sold off beginning around November. Since then, MSFT appears to be in the process of developing a cup pattern with a $484 indicated pivot point, as marked with a black curving line at the chart's right. This is a bullish technical sign. Should the cup pattern evolve into a cup-with-handle one, Microsoft's indicated pivot point would shift from the cup's left-side apex ($484 in the chart above) to its right-side one (about $431). (By way of reference, MSFT closed Monday at $424.82.) Meanwhile, Microsoft recently reclaimed its 21-day Exponential Moving Average, or "EMA," marked with a green line. It also recently retook its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line). Crossing those lines generally compels both swing traders and portfolio managers to increase their long-side exposure. Microsoft also recently enjoyed a so-called "swing trader's golden cross," where the green line crossed above the blue line at a time when the blue line was rising. That's a bullish technical signal. However, the stock has also faced a spate of resistance (which could develop into a handle) at a precise 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's October-through-March beat-down. That's intriguing. Looking at the chart's other technical indicators, Microsoft's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the top) is now quite robust, straddling the line between being technically overbought and just flirting with that level. Meanwhile, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with blue bars, a black line and a gold one at the chart's bottom) is almost as bullish-looking as it can get. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars), the 12-day EMA (the black line) and the 26-day EMA (the gold line) are all running above the zero-bound -- with the black line well above the gold line. Those are all short- to medium-term bullish signals. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in MSFT at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. 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