The core logic behind the bearish outlook:GoldOANDA:XAUUSDAlbie_Walker# The core logic behind the bearish outlook: 📉 1. The lingering effects of the Fed's hawkish decision and persistent pressure from high interest rate expectations (core bearish factor) Yesterday's hawkish decision completely reversed expectations of a rate cut, leaving only a 19% probability of a September rate cut and only one rate cut this year (in December). High interest rates are now a certainty, keeping gold holding costs high, reducing the attractiveness of zero-interest assets, and leading to continued capital outflows. Real interest rates remain high at 1.98%, a two-month high. Historical data shows that when real interest rates are above 1.8%, gold is more likely to fall than rise, with limited upside potential, which currently perfectly aligns with this pattern. Powell's hawkish stance shows no signs of easing, leading to a repricing of high interest rate expectations in the market. The dollar and US Treasury bonds remain strong at high levels, putting continued pressure on gold. 💲 2. The US Dollar Index fluctuates at high levels, with pricing pressure and continued diversion of safe-haven demand (strong bearish factor). The US Dollar Index remains high at 99.5. Following the hawkish policy decision, the US dollar has become the world's preferred safe-haven asset, diverting demand from gold and weakening its safe-haven attributes. Non-US currencies are under pressure across the board. The Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen remain low against the US Dollar. Gold, priced in US dollars, is passively pressured, losing its pricing advantage and lacking buying support. The strong US Dollar cycle has not ended, and a significant short-term correction is unlikely. This will continue to suppress gold's rebound, making it difficult for any rebound to break through the strong resistance level of 4620.