DJI/CPI: yearly setup, UAE OPEC exit as the trigger eventDJI/CPIAUCSLTVC:DJI/FRED:CPIAUCSLIvanLabrieYearly inflation adjusted Dow could fire a yearly trend signal this year. Points to a rally into 2030 if it triggers. Chart looks similar to the 90s. 1986 fits very well with 2017, so this year fits with 1993. From a Time@Mode perspective. The analog Eyeballing it: downtrend from the 1966 high fired in 1973, bottomed 4 years after time expiration. Then a yearly basing pattern after a few faster years off the lows, 1986 to 1993. Top hit a bit after time expiration by the year 2000. Yearly downtrend followed, triggering in 2008 and bottoming into the 2009 GFC low after hitting the target. Current cycle 1st yearly mode since the GFC low showed up by 2020, started forming since 2017. 2021 fired an uptrend, then retest, same-size mode, then another mode. Four higher 5-year modes. This year doesn't have a mode at the level where it's traded. Could be like 2021, where a signal fires and retests the mode below the year after. Could also just be a steady trend till 2030. If DJI/CPI trades above the 2022 inflation-adjusted high all year, yearly signal fires. Bull scenario The analog isn't 1993 by itself. From a fundamental perspective, it's 1985 to 86 setting up 1993. The 90s bull happened because Saudi flooded the market in 1985–86 after years of OPEC cheating from other members. Crude went from ~$30 to ~$10. That ended stagflation, disinflation regime kicked in, and Greenspan got the runway he needed. Catalyst stack for 2026: UAE exited OPEC today (April 28, 2026). ADNOC's been building capacity for years specifically for this. Saudi can't hold quota lines alone with Russia compromised and Iran weakened. Once discipline cracks, every member produces flat-out to grab revenue while prices are still high. Supply floods 12 to 18 months later. 1985 sequence. Iran attacking all neighbors during the war reads like late-Cold-War Soviet overreach. Pushes Sunni states toward Israel and the US, accelerates regional realignment, eventually drains the Iran tail-risk premium out of crude. Peace dividend leg, like the early 90s. AI productivity is the internet 1993 analog. Measured Total Factor Productivity gains lagged IT capex by about 3 years in the 90s. Same lag setup now. Capex is inflationary near-term and disinflationary in the back half, once the productivity prints actually arrive. China post-Evergrande bottom adds the global disinflationary impulse via manufacturing and export stimulus. Closest historical rhyme: 1998 Asia crisis stabilization feeding into the late 90s liquidity wave. Warsh confirmed as new Fed Chair. Reads AI as disinflationary and is willing to cut into a productivity boom. Greenspan put analog. Cuts into productivity is the rare combo where you get earnings growth and multiple expansion at the same time. If the catalyst stack flows through, 2027 to 2030 are the trend years. 2026 is the catalyst year that sets it up. So a mix of 1985 and 1993, technically. Bear scenario Signal fails into a multi-year decline if the regime breaks instead of resets. Two templates worth keeping in mind. 1937: Fed and Treasury tightened too early into the Roosevelt recovery, market dropped ~49% over 1937–38. The Fed mistake into a young bull. 1973: oil shock locked in stagflation for a decade. What that looks like in 2026: OPEC fragmentation could backfire short-term. Crude spikes on geopolitical news instead of crashing on a supply flood. The 6 to 12 month window between fragmentation and actual supply response sees oil $120+ on Iran tail risk and inventory hoarding. If the spike sustains past 18 months, the disinflation leg never arrives. AI capex inflation could run hot longer than expected. Electricity, chips, data centers all bidding up real resources. Services inflation re-accelerates. Productivity gains don't show up in TFP data yet because of the 3-year lag. Warsh could surprise hawkish. Reads sticky inflation as not transitory, hikes despite Trump admin preferences. Real rates climb during the AI capex peak. Multiple compression starts before earnings catch up. The 1937 Fed mistake. US fiscal accident: Treasury market loses bid on debt sustainability concerns. Bond yields blow out. No clean historical analog here, closest is the UK 1976 IMF crisis. Equity multiples compress structurally and the Fed can't fix it without losing inflation credibility. China hard landing instead of managed reflation. Pulls the global disinflationary tailwind. Hits multinational earnings. Compounds with anything else above. Two or more of those firing together is 1973 layered on 1937. Multi-year real-terms grind, flat for the rest of the decade in the worst case. Single-year vs. multi-year filter This is the part that matters for risk management. A drop in 2027 that retraces and recovers within 12 months means the regime is still intact. Treat it as a buy. A drop that keeps going into 2028 means a structural leg cracked. Flip the thesis. The tell: in failed bullish setups, the second-year fundamentals look qualitatively different from the first-year scare. If 2028 is just "lower prices, same story" as 2027, historically, that's a retest. If 2028 has a new fundamental story that wasn't on the table in 2027 (oil shock that didn't reverse, AI capex collapse, fiscal crack), the regime broke and the bull case is dead. What I'm watching Saudi's response to the UAE exit. Pre-emptive production hike (1985 sequence) or hold the line. Russia's stance on OPEC+ post-UAE. Crude price action. Short-term spike fine, sustained $120+ for 18 months kills the analog. Fed reaction function under Warsh once the first AI/oil disinflation prints arrive. DJI/CPI yearly close without retesting the 2022 real high. That's the technical confirmation. To sum up, I think we are seeing something interesting develop here: from catalyst year that sets up the run, with 2027 to 2030 as the actual trend years. UAE OPEC exit today is a possible trigger event. Yearly close above 2022 real high confirms it. Sustained crude above $120 kills it. Seems reasonable to me, but I'll be ready to manage risk if the bearish path shows up next year. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.