Maritime traffic via Hormuz: the numbers still don’t add upS&P 500SP:SPXSwissquoteThe divergence between the rebound in equity market indices and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may seem very surprising, as uncertainty remains extremely high. While diplomacy has taken the upper hand since the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the primary indicator of normalization is still not showing any signs of easing. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has managed to reach a new all-time high, driven by the technology sector. In my previous analyses published on TradingView, I have had the opportunity to revisit several times the key barometers of geopolitical risk in order to properly assess geopolitical stress and its potential impact on risky assets in financial markets. Oil prices, natural gas prices, urea fertilizer prices, and above all the daily number of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz — these are the four primary indicators of current geopolitical risk. The table below reminds you of the list of websites that allow you to consult maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in real time: As for oil prices, you can read my analysis below, which provides a chart-based mapping of the technical levels to monitor on US crude oil (WTI) to determine whether the peak in oil prices is already behind us: When closely examining maritime transit data through the Strait of Hormuz, the conclusion is clear: traffic has still not normalized. After a sharp collapse at the end of February, the number of vessels — whether inbound or outbound — remains structurally below the levels observed before the escalation of tensions. While occasional technical rebounds can be observed, they remain insufficient to validate a lasting return to normal. In other words, the equity market currently appears to be ignoring a fundamental signal. This divergence between financial assets and real-world physical indicators raises questions. Historically, this type of dislocation is never sustainable: either maritime traffic recovers significantly, validating market optimism, or the markets themselves eventually reprice a higher risk premium. The chart below shows the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz each day. Source: Bloomberg. It should also be noted that maritime transport players remain extremely sensitive to security risks. Shipowners, insurers, and charterers quickly adjust their behavior based on even the slightest signal of tension. The persistence of reduced traffic therefore suggests that these core players do not yet perceive conditions as sufficiently safe to resume normal activity. In this context, closely monitoring the daily number of tankers transiting through Hormuz remains essential. It is a leading, concrete, and difficult-to-manipulate indicator. 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