Farmers working at a field in Ludhiana. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s (MoSPI) now estimates that the ‘Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing’ sector is, on average, 5% larger than previously estimated in the four years starting 2022-23, in current prices. Photo: Gurmeet Singh 30.01.2026 *** Local Caption *** Farmer working at fields in Ludhiana. Express Photo: Gurmeet SinghIndia’s new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year has led to some dramatic changes: real growth rates in the three years starting 2023-24 are now more stable (7.1-7.6%) than before (6.5-9.2%). There has been a 3-4% reduction in the size of the economy without adjusting for price changes, which is not unreasonable. What is interesting, however, is how various sectors are seen to be faring under the new GDP series — which is widely considered to be a more accurate representation of the economy than the old one.Consider the farm sector, for instance. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s (MoSPI) now estimates that the ‘Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing’ sector is, on average, 5% larger than previously estimated in the four years starting 2022-23, in current prices (or without adjusting for inflation). When taken in conjunction with the fact that the size of India’s nominal GDP is now 3-4% lower than under the old series with 2011-12 as the base year, agriculture’s share in the economy in the new series has increased to 18.2% in 2022-23 from 16.5% in the old. But the sector continues to shrink: in 2025-26, it accounted for 16.2% of GDP as against 15.2% in the old series, in nominal terms.But how is the farm sector larger than previously thought? There are two reasons.One, the new series captures the shift to cash crops in the sector through the inclusion of more fruits and vegetables. By definition, these cash crops provide higher profits to farmers, leading to greater value added — and therefore, the size of the sector increases.More in Explained | New GDP series makes meeting fiscal targets, $4-trillion economy aim more difficultTwo, the new series increases the farm sector’s value added by reducing the value of a key input they use: power. “There has been a significant reduction of diesel in the agriculture sector and replaced by electricity — and more so by solar electricity. This is the impact of the PM KUSUM scheme. So, that means that the value added available to farmers is increased because of reduction of the fuel costs,” MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg explained on Friday (February 27).The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyaan, or PM KUSUM scheme, was launched in March 2019 and provides subsidies to farmers who install solar irrigation pumps for cultivation, helping bring down the reliance on diesel.Faster manufacturing growthA key difference between the old and new GDP series is how the manufacturing sector has become a key driver of the economy. In the old series, manufacturing growth averaged 8% from 2023-24 to 2025-26, bolstered by 12.3% growth in 2023-24 on the back of a favourable base effect. However, in the new series, the sector has expanded by 11.2% on average in each of the three years.Story continues below this adThis is due to multiple reasons, including the abandonment of the much-criticised single-deflator method to arrive at real Gross Value Added (GVA) from nominal. But another factor is improved data sources – specifically, for the informal sector, by way of the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprise (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). This, economists say, has helped lead to consistently stronger manufacturing sector growth.Informal economy pictureOne of the criticisms of India’s GDP data so far had been the inaccurate representation and measurement of the informal sector. This has changed somewhat with the new series due to the use of PLFS and ASUSE data, which reduces the reliance on proxies from the formal sector.Also read | Unstable, too broad: New GDP series won’t use UPI transaction dataBut while manufacturing may have benefitted from stronger informal economy performance, data for other sectors suggest the size of the unorganised sector is perhaps not as large as previously estimated.Consider ‘Trade, repair, Hotels & Restaurants, Transport, Storage, Communication & Services related to broadcasting’ – part of the service sector – whose GVA has fallen by almost 25% on average every year in 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26. A large portion of this sector, MoSPI Secretary Garg said, is informal in nature. And with better data sources such as the PLFS and ASUSE, the statistics ministry is now able to produce a “much more robust estimate” than before.Story continues below this adUnlike the GDP rebasing exercise of 2015, economists are – by and large – satisfied this time around, with initial assessments ranging from “comprehensive” (State Bank of India), “realistic and reliable” (Barclays), and a “credibly executed upgrade” (QuantEco Research).Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More © The Indian Express Pvt LtdTags:Express Explained