META - 2026Meta Platforms Inc Class ABATS:METAjplirani77HOLD - NEUTRAL ,LIGHT UPTREND **Returns 2022–2025 — extreme swings:** - 2022: -64.22% (metaverse disaster), 2023: +194.13% (Year of Efficiency), 2024: +66.05%, 2025: +13.09% - Despite the brutal 2022 crash, a $10k buy-and-hold from start of 2022 still grew to ~$17,700 by end of 2025 — testament to the recovery power **Business fundamentals are strong:** FY2025 revenue hit $200.97B (+22% YoY), and Q4 EPS came in at $8.88, well above estimates. **The HOLD dilemma — the CapEx elephant:** Meta has budgeted $115–135B in 2026 capex, nearly double the $72.2B spent in 2025, and operating margin fell to 41% from 48% as costs rose 40% YoY in Q4. **Why your NEUTRAL/HOLD is rational:** The 2026 narrative is a race between margin compression from $100B+ capex depreciation and AI-driven ad-tech industrialization — ads that reportedly convert at 3× legacy rates. Institutional investors are hesitant to sell because Meta's 3.58B daily active people provide a user moat no other AI company can match — but that's not a reason to add new capital at current prices either. Watch the 2026 operating margin trend as the key trigger to revisit.