Short on BTCUSDBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDBrocetaFlag pattern on daily timeframe + Iran war After a strong impulsive move to the upside, BTC formed a classic flag consolidation on the daily timeframe, which often signals continuation but can also act as a distribution phase depending on macro catalysts. Currently the market is trading inside the flag structure while volatility remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict). Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty tend to increase risk-off sentiment, which can trigger liquidity moves in crypto markets. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent structure can be interpreted as a completed Wave 3 impulse, followed by a corrective Wave 4 flag pattern. If this count is correct, the market could still complete a final Wave 5 expansion, but failure to hold the lower boundary of the flag would invalidate this scenario. At the moment, price action is showing weak bullish momentum, with decreasing volume and multiple rejections near the upper flag resistance. Because of that, I am positioning for a potential downside break of the flag structure. Key factors supporting the short bias: • Flag pattern nearing resolution • Momentum indicators showing divergence on lower timeframes • Liquidity resting below the flag support • Increased macro uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions • Possible completion of the Elliott Wave impulse cycle If price breaks and closes below the lower trendline of the flag, this could trigger a liquidity cascade toward lower support zones, where larger players may look to re-accumulate. Invalidation occurs if BTC reclaims the upper boundary of the flag with strong volume. As always, this is a probability-based trade idea, not financial advice. Proper risk management and position sizing are essential.