Iraq has already begun shutting in production as exports through the Strait of Hormuz become increasingly constrained. Roughly 1.5 million barrels per day are reportedly offline, and officials have warned that figure could approach 3 million bpd if disruptions persist. At 3 million bpd, this becomes one of the largest sudden supply losses in the modern market outside of sanctions or war. Iraq’s total crude production has been running near 4.0–4.3 million bpd, according to recent OPEC secondary-source data. Exports typically average…