Fundamental Market Analysis for March 03, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004USD/JPY is trading around 157.250 on the morning of March 3, reflecting the dollar’s advantage during a period of elevated uncertainty. Against the backdrop of escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, investors more often choose the dollar as the most liquid instrument, while the yen’s support is weaker than usual due to domestic factors in Japan. For the yen, the Bank of Japan’s policy path remains the key factor: the regulator is gradually normalizing policy, but the market is uncertain about the timing of the next steps. Additional uncertainty comes from swings in Japanese bond yields and discussions about possible currency measures by the authorities. For the dollar, expectations around the Fed rate are crucial: strong US data and the risk of more persistent inflation due to expensive oil reduce the likelihood of rapid easing. As long as the interest-rate differential and demand for the dollar remain significant, the pair can stay elevated. More decisive signals from the Bank of Japan or a sharp easing of geopolitical tensions could strengthen the yen and cap USD/JPY upside, so the position should be managed with discipline and with attention to the schedule of central bank communications. Trading recommendation: BUY 157.250, SL 156.750, TP 158.750