Preview: Barcelona praying for a miracle against Atlético MadridShare“If any team are capable of a comeback, it’ll be us.” So said Raphinha this week, but it’s probably worth Barcelona remembering that most notable comebacks in recent years have been against Barca – and Atlético Madrid hold a massive lead.By Karl MatchettAttack vs. Defence?If the Brazilian’s prediction is to come true, then Hansi Flick’s side will have to come out all guns blazing, keep Atleti pegged back and score reasonably early on. Whoever wins this tie will be favourites to triumph in the Copa del Rey final itself – Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are in the other semi – but overcoming a 4-0 first-leg deficit is a mammoth challenge for a club whose bigger focus will still be on a LaLiga title and an open road to the semi-finals in the Champions League.A reminder of the first legEven so, assuming the Camp Nou side go all out, the evidence isn’t wildly in their favour that they’ll achieve the mission. They’ve only kept six clean sheets this side of the new year from 15 matches in all competitions – and four of those came against either bottom-three or lower-league teams. Atleti have kept more clean sheets in LaLiga and allowed a lower xG tally this season (28.9 – 33.4), as well as actually conceding three fewer goals.Atlético’s forwards might not feast in the same way Barca’s do, but they still have the third highest shots on target per 90 rate in LaLiga and have scored at above their xG rate too. Keeping los rojiblancos at bay so soon after shipping four against them might well be beyond Barcelona, meaning they’d need at least five goals themselves. Six against Valencia and Olympiacos, five against Real Betis and Athletic: those are the only games they’ve managed it this term.Flick’s century, Simeone’s 15 yearsLast time out Barcelona were rampant, giving Flick a win in his 100th fixture in charge of the club. He’s clearly got the team on the right path overall, even if there remain elements of the squad overused or understocked for a real assault on Europe.Meanwhile, Diego Simeone is at this stage basically synonymous with Atlético – yet we’re just a couple of weeks down the line from a wild suggestion that the club’s new director of football might want him to depart. It seems improbable mid-season and even if the Copa isn’t the biggest prize, Simeone will surely want to add a trophy to his club collection – it’s 13 years since he won this one.Recent formA defeat and two wins since the first leg for the hosts; Atleti have had a defeat, a draw and then three straight wins.Team newsEric García is suspended and Frenkie de Jong is out injured, along with Gavi. Robert Lewandowski also misses out after a fracture.Atlético will be without Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso.Key playerHe’s talking up the team, he needs to produce himself. Raphinha’s last year sees him above 95% of European midfielders for chance creation, 98% for goals and 99% for shots – but he hasn’t scored or assisted in the last four.PredictionThey’ll give it a go…and fall short. Atlético are just too frustrating to play against when they want to be: Barcelona 3-1 Atlético Madrid.(Cover image from IMAGO)You can follow every game from the Copa Del Rey with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.Preview: Barcelona praying for a miracle against Atlético Madrid“If any team are capable of a comeback, it’ll be us.” So said Raphinha this week, but it’s probably worth Barcelona remembering that most notable comebacks in recent years have been against Barca – and Atlético Madrid hold a massive lead.By Karl MatchettAttack vs. Defence?If the Brazilian’s prediction is to come true, then Hansi Flick’s side will have to come out all guns blazing, keep Atleti pegged back and score reasonably early on. Whoever wins this tie will be favourites to triumph in the Copa del Rey final itself – Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are in the other semi – but overcoming a 4-0 first-leg deficit is a mammoth challenge for a club whose bigger focus will still be on a LaLiga title and an open road to the semi-finals in the Champions League.A reminder of the first legEven so, assuming the Camp Nou side go all out, the evidence isn’t wildly in their favour that they’ll achieve the mission. They’ve only kept six clean sheets this side of the new year from 15 matches in all competitions – and four of those came against either bottom-three or lower-league teams. Atleti have kept more clean sheets in LaLiga and allowed a lower xG tally this season (28.9 – 33.4), as well as actually conceding three fewer goals.Atlético’s forwards might not feast in the same way Barca’s do, but they still have the third highest shots on target per 90 rate in LaLiga and have scored at above their xG rate too. Keeping los rojiblancos at bay so soon after shipping four against them might well be beyond Barcelona, meaning they’d need at least five goals themselves. Six against Valencia and Olympiacos, five against Real Betis and Athletic: those are the only games they’ve managed it this term.Flick’s century, Simeone’s 15 yearsLast time out Barcelona were rampant, giving Flick a win in his 100th fixture in charge of the club. He’s clearly got the team on the right path overall, even if there remain elements of the squad overused or understocked for a real assault on Europe.Meanwhile, Diego Simeone is at this stage basically synonymous with Atlético – yet we’re just a couple of weeks down the line from a wild suggestion that the club’s new director of football might want him to depart. It seems improbable mid-season and even if the Copa isn’t the biggest prize, Simeone will surely want to add a trophy to his club collection – it’s 13 years since he won this one.Recent formA defeat and two wins since the first leg for the hosts; Atleti have had a defeat, a draw and then three straight wins.Team newsEric García is suspended and Frenkie de Jong is out injured, along with Gavi. Robert Lewandowski also misses out after a fracture.Atlético will be without Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso.Key playerHe’s talking up the team, he needs to produce himself. Raphinha’s last year sees him above 95% of European midfielders for chance creation, 98% for goals and 99% for shots – but he hasn’t scored or assisted in the last four.PredictionThey’ll give it a go…and fall short. Atlético are just too frustrating to play against when they want to be: Barcelona 3-1 Atlético Madrid.(Cover image from IMAGO)You can follow every game from the Copa Del Rey with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.