3 min readMar 3, 2026 06:00 AM IST First published on: Mar 3, 2026 at 06:00 AM ISTWhile the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, represents a big blow to the clerical establishment, it may or may not be an irreversible setback for the regime. The US and Israel, whose stated aim is regime change — notwithstanding Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s prevarication Monday that “this is not a regime change war, but the regime sure did change” — seem to be betting on intensive airstrikes while exhorting the Iranian people to complete it on the ground. This strategy may overlook the resilience of the deeply entrenched authoritarian system designed to withstand external pressures. This is particularly so in Iran, where powerful institutions are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Trump’s America may be about to learn that removing a leader as powerful as Khamenei is not the same thing as reshaping a country’s future. While its action in Iran appears, especially, to be an escalation without a plan, this is a lesson that America has failed to learn even earlier.President Trump has established a formidable track record of acting unilaterally, without consultation with domestic and foreign stakeholders. His imposition of global tariffs, his threats against Greenland, and his attempt to cut deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, are part of this pattern. In the case of Iran, there is no indication that he is stitching up a coalition or partnering with alternative power centres inside the country. He must know that a scenario akin to the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, succeeded by a regime acceptable to the White House, is unlikely. Iran is a much larger and militarily stronger state with a network of regional proxies and, domestically, the deeply embedded ideological force of the IRGC, whose singular mission is to defend the 1979 revolution. The question, then, is whether the US and Israel have waged a war without a plan for the day after, one that risks breaking a country and leaving recovery and repair steeped in uncertainty.AdvertisementTrump portrays himself as a president of peace, yet since he returned to office last year, his administration has bombed seven countries. His claims of ending wars are embedded in exaggeration or falsehood. America’s historical record in engineering regime change is troubling: In recent history, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya were torn apart by US-led interventions and continue to grapple with instability. Ironically, one of Trump’s earliest political stances was a scathing critique of George W Bush’s war in Iraq, a war that had bipartisan support in the US Congress. This isn’t the case here: Democrats and the MAGA base are opposed to the Iran campaign. Trump helms a situation he once condemned unequivocally. As new fronts open and fires spread across the region, in cities that pride themselves as the new cosmopolitan centres, from Dubai to Abu Dhabi and Doha, the absence of a plan has a terrible daily cost.