REBECCA F. ELLIOTT2026年3月2日视频截取的一张照片显示，周日，一艘停泊在阿曼附近的油轮正起火燃烧。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOil prices rose 10 percent as markets opened on Sunday evening, underscoring the economic risks of the widening conflict in the Middle East.周日晚间市场开盘，油价暴涨10%，凸显出中东冲突扩大带来的经济风险。The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran could severely restrict supplies from a key oil and gas-producing region. Even if the disruption is brief, it will almost certainly make energy more expensive worldwide. The magnitude of those price increases and how long they last will depend on what the United States and Israel do next — and how Iran responds.美以对伊朗发动的打击可能严重限制这一重要油气产区的供应。即便中断时间短暂，也几乎必然推高全球能源价格。涨幅大小与持续时长将取决于美以下一步行动以及伊朗如何回应。International oil prices had already climbed about 20 percent this year, nearing $73 a barrel on Friday. On Sunday, they crossed $80 a barrel.今年以来，国际油价已累计上涨约20%，周五一度接近每桶73美元。周日，油价直接突破每桶80美元。The longer that the war disrupts the energy trade, the bigger the risk that consumers will face higher prices, not just at the gas pump but in a broad array of products, at a time when many people are already worried about the economy. That could cause domestic political blowback for President Trump, whose approval ratings have tumbled in part because many Americans are concerned about inflation.战争对能源贸易的干扰持续越久，消费者面临的涨价风险就越大——不仅体现在加油站，还会传导到大量商品。而当前许多民众本就对经济感到担忧。这可能给特朗普总统带来国内政治上的不利，他的支持率近期下滑，部分原因正是不少美国人对通胀的担忧。By Sunday, the flow of tankers carrying energy products through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast, had slowed to a trickle. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas usually pass through the choke point daily.截至周日，途经伊朗南部沿海狭窄水道霍尔木兹海峡的能源运输已近乎停滞。全球约五分之一的石油和大量天然气，日常都要经过这一咽喉要道。But in a crucial sign for oil markets, no major energy assets in the region appeared to have been struck as of late Sunday in Iran.但对石油市场而言，一个关键信号是：截至周日晚间，伊朗境内的主要能源设施暂未遭到袭击。“The biggest question is what, if any, oil installations get damaged,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab at New York University. “If the answer to that is none, my opinion is the price of oil will come back down.”“最大的问题是，石油设施如果受损，受损的是哪些，”纽约大学能源、气候正义与可持续发展实验室主任埃米·迈尔斯·贾菲表示，“如果答案是没有设施受损，那么我认为油价会回落。”The United States may be the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, but that does not fully insulate it from market shocks since those commodities are traded globally.美国虽是全球最大油气生产国，但也无法完全免受市场冲击，因为这些大宗商品是全球范围交易的。This is the second time in two months that the United States has taken military action in an oil-rich country. Prices barely moved in January after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, partly because that country accounts for less than 1 percent of the world’s oil supply.这是两个月内美国第二次对石油资源丰富的国家采取军事行动。1月美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗后，油价几乎没有波动，部分原因是该国石油供应量占全球不到1%。Not only does Iran produce more oil, but so do its neighbors, and the country sits at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, a vital oil and natural gas trading route.伊朗不仅自身石油产量更高，其周边邻国亦是产油大国，且伊朗扼守波斯湾入海口，这是油气贸易的关键通道。Until this point, one of the main concerns in the global market had been that the world was producing a lot more oil than it needed. That oversupply is likely to blunt any increase in prices, at least for a while. Indeed, on Sunday, a group of oil producers known as OPEC Plus said they planed to increase output modestly in April.到目前为止，全球市场的主要担忧之一是世界石油产量远大于需求量。这种供应过剩至少在短期内可能抑制油价上涨。事实上，周日，名为欧佩克+的产油国集团已表示，计划在4月小幅提高产量。“Americans will see some impact at the gasoline pump,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “But even with a massive strike on Iran that killed the leader of the country, at this point we’re still talking about oil prices that are well within historical norms — and much less than one would have ever expected with a strike of this magnitude.”“美国人会在加油站感受到一些影响，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心创始主任贾森·博多夫表示，“但即便对伊朗发动大规模袭击并导致其领导人死亡，目前来看，油价仍处在历史正常区间——远低于如此规模打击本可能引发的涨幅。”Higher prices for oil traded on commodity futures markets will not immediately lead to a big increase in prices at gas pumps in the United States. But fuel prices tend to respond relatively quickly, within a matter of days or weeks.大宗商品期货市场上的油价上涨不会立刻导致美国加油站油价大幅飙升，但燃油价格通常会在数天至数周内做出相对较快的反应。The pace “will really depend on how severe the supply constraint reveals itself to be,” said Ken Medlock, an energy fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.莱斯大学贝克研究所能源研究员肯·梅德洛克表示，上涨速度“实际上将取决于供应受限的严重程度”。In the week after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices climbed around 20 percent. But the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline only rose about 3 percent in that time, according to AAA motor club data. It was not until the following week that drivers started to see significantly higher gasoline prices. U.S. gasoline prices eventually hit a record above $5 a gallon several months later, in June.2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的一周内，油价上涨约20%。但据美国汽车协会AAA的数据，同期普通汽油每加仑均价仅上涨约3%。直到第二周，驾车者才开始看到油价明显走高。数月后的6月，美国汽油价格最终突破每加仑五美元，创下历史纪录。As a general rule of thumb, for every $10 a barrel increase in the cost of oil, the price of gasoline that consumers see at their local stations might rise 20 to 30 cents a gallon, said Ms. Jaffe of N.Y.U. Gasoline cost an average of $2.98 a gallon in the United States on Sunday, according to AAA.纽约大学的贾菲表示，根据一般经验，每桶油价上涨10美元，加油站汽油每加仑可能上涨20至30美分。AAA数据显示，周日美国汽油均价为每加仑2.98美元。The Russian invasion of Ukraine also drove up the price of natural gas, a key fuel for the power sector and heavy industry. That contributed to increases in the prices of electricity in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. A lot of liquefied natural gas is shipped through the waters around Iran and a sustained disruption of those flows could, over time, also hurt the global economy.俄罗斯入侵乌克兰还推高了天然气价格——天然气是电力和重工业的关键燃料，这也推高了欧洲、美国等地的电价。大量液化天然气要经由伊朗周边海域运输，长期来看，相关运输若长时间中断，也会冲击全球经济。On Sunday, attention remained on the Strait of Hormuz, where videos verified by The New York Times showed a tanker ablaze while anchored near Oman. Another vessel was also reportedly struck in the area, and a separate projectile was said to have exploded near a third ship.周日，各方目光仍聚焦霍尔木兹海峡。经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，一艘油轮在阿曼附近锚泊时起火。据报道，另一艘船在该区域遇袭，另有一枚弹体在第三艘船只附近爆炸。In other conflicts, naval vessels have escorted commercial ships that have come under threat, though a Department of Defense spokesman said the United States had no such plans for the Persian Gulf.在以往冲突中，海军舰艇会为受威胁的商船护航，但美国国防部一名发言人表示，美方目前暂无在波斯湾采取此类行动的计划。As of Sunday afternoon in Iran, just six tankers used to carry energy products had traveled through the strait, down from 65 on Friday, according to S&P Global Energy’s Commodities at Sea.标普全球大宗商品航运数据显示，截至伊朗当地时间周日下午，仅有六艘能源运输船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，而周五这一数字为65艘。Christiaan Triebert、Peter Eavis和Eric Schmitt对本文有报道贡献。Rebecca F. Elliott为时报报道能源新闻。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site