The worldwoke up to a dramatically different geopolitical landscape on Monday, March 2,2026. Gold surged nearly 2% to test $5,400 per ounce, its highestlevel since January 30, while Brent crude spiked as much as 13% to $82per barrel at the open, a 14-month high, as the United States andIsrael's coordinated military strikes on Iran triggered the effectiveclosure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of theworld's daily oil supply passes. The deathof Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the opening day ofthe offensive, combined with Iran's retaliatory missile strikes across theGulf, sent investors flooding into safe-haven assets in one of the mostdramatic Monday market openings in years. In thisarticle, I examine why gold price is going up alongside with oil, analyzing XAU/USDand WTI technical charts.Followme on X for more gold and oil market analysis: @ChmielDkWhat Happened: KhameneiKilled, Hormuz ShutThe strikesbegan on Saturday, February 28, when President Donald Trump announced in avideo posted on Truth Social that the United States had launched coordinatedmilitary operations against Iran alongside Israel. The scale wasextraordinary:The Israeli Air Force struck over 500 military targets in western and central Iran using approximately 200 fighter jets, the largest combat sortie in its historyThe US military deployed B-2 stealth bombers to strike fortified ballistic missile facilitiesOver 1,200 bombs were deployed in the first 24 hoursUS and European officials stated three core demands: permanent end to uranium enrichment, strict limits on Iran's ballistic missile programme, and a complete halt to support for proxy groupsTheconsequences were immediate and historic. Supreme Leader Ayatollah AliKhamenei was killed on the opening day of the offensive. Iranretaliated with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles targeting US militarybases across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, andthe UAE. Iranianballistic missiles struck Dubai, with footage showing an impact at a five-star hotel on Palm Jumeirah,a city that has become one of the world's most important hubs for CFD brokersand financial trading firms.By Sundaythe conflict had escalated on multiple fronts. Hezbollah declared an"official declaration of war", launching projectiles from Lebanontoward Haifa and Upper Galilee, while the Yemen-based Houthis announcedthe resumption of Red Sea attacks. Iran's response in the Strait of Hormuzmay prove the most consequential act for global markets: Tehran warned allvessels that no ships would be permitted to transit thewaterway, and tanker tracking data showed traffic through the strait's mainshipping lanes halted completely on March 1.At least 100 oil tankers stopped near UAE and Oman coastlinesTwo ships were attacked in the straitThe Houthis' Red Sea resumption effectively shut a second critical maritime corridor simultaneouslyCFD brokersand prop firms raised margin requirements and leverage limits even before markets opened,bracing for the volatility that followed.Why Gold Price Is Surging?XAU/USD Tests $5,400The flow ofinvestors toward safe havens in the face of what happened over the weekend is,according to my analysis, a completely natural market reaction. Gold openedMonday nearly 2% higher, reaching $5,368-$5,390 per ounce, itshighest level since January 30, 2026, with US gold futures surging 2.58%to $5,382.60. In Indianmarkets MCX gold jumped 3.5%, while silver surgedsimultaneously,with spot silver rising 1.68% to $95.35 per ounce, testing lateJanuary levels. By the time of writing, silver's gains were reduced to +0.3%at $94, while gold held its advance more firmly near $5,362.From theperspective of my technical analysis, gold is now just a short distance from avery important resistance zone. $5,430 is where price closedat the end of January on the weekly chart, and I would expect a strongeraccumulation of sell orders there. However, current geopolitical tensions maymeaningfully shift the balance of forces, and this is not a normal technicalsetup.The biggerpicture from my analysis is compelling: from the February lows, gold has nowrecovered over 20%, and at current levels around $5,362 we arealready just a few percentage points from the all-time highs at $5,600.If $5,430 breaks decisively, the path to retesting the January 28 high at$5,415 and the January 29 record at $5,600 opens fully. The longer-termFibonacci projections pointing to $6,100-$7,200, which I outlined earlier this year, wouldthen become the primary reference targets. On the downside, according to myanalysis gold has strong supports: the $5,000 psychological level andthen $4,850, where the 50 EMA creates a double support floor.Dilin Wu,Research Strategist at Pepperstone, captures the near-term uncertaintyprecisely: "XAUUSD opened approximately 1.4% higher on Monday followingthe sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East, but buying pressureproved limited thereafter. With the path of the regional conflict remaininghighly uncertain, short-term gold volatility has increasedsignificantly."Why Oil Is Surging 13%?Strait of Hormuz Is the StoryThe oilmarket's reaction was even more dramatic. At Monday's open, Brent crudesurged 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, while WTI jumped upto 12% from Friday's close, which had itself been the highest sinceAugust 2025. By the time of writing, a significant portion of that move hasbeen digested: WTI is now around $70-72 per barrel (+6.5%), andBrent is holding around +4% in early trading. We remain, however, above lastsummer's peaks, which now serve as an important support level.Jeff Mowerand S&P Global CERA analysts identified the core mechanism: "Oiltanker traffic transiting the main shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz washalted on March 1. Even if production and terminals remain intact, higherrisk premiums, ship owner caution, and delayed shipping fixtures can reducedelivered barrels, supporting higher risk premiums on March 2 opening untilmaritime threats de-escalate."The Straitof Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world's daily oil trade and20% of global LNG. Its closure, even partial or temporary, represents asupply shock with no quick fix. Key institutional forecasts for oil thisweek:Oil Technical Analysis:Golden Cross ApproachingBeyond theimmediate war premium, my technical analysis of oil was already flagging asignificant structural signal before this weekend.Accordingto my analysis, the 50 EMA is now approaching the 200 EMA from below,close to completing what technicians call a "golden cross",historically one of the strongest buy signals in any market. The last timethese two averages crossed on the oil chart was July 2024, but inthe opposite direction. That death cross generated a powerful sell signal thatpushed WTI from approximately $80 per barrel all the way down to $55.Now, my analysis shows the same mechanism appearing to reverse direction.If thegolden cross completes, it would provide technical confirmation of a newlong-term uptrend in crude, layered on top of the geopolitical supply shockalready in play. That said, I want to be explicit: more important thanany technical signal will be geopolitics from here. FAQWhy is gold going uptoday, March 2, 2026?Gold surgednearly 2% to $5,368-$5,390 per ounce on Monday, its highest since January 30,after the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran onSaturday, February 28. The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's retaliatorystrikes across Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq, the closure of the Straitof Hormuz, and Hezbollah's declaration of war triggered a classic safe-havenflight. Why is oil surging?Brent crudejumped 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, and WTI spiked up to 12% atMonday's open following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered the effectiveclosure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global dailyoil supply passes. Oil tanker traffic halted completely on March 1, with over100 tankers stopped near UAE and Oman.How high can gold go ifthe Iran war escalates?FromMonday's $5,362-$5,390 level, according to my technical analysis the immediatetarget is a break above $5,430 resistance, which would openthe path to retesting the $5,415 January 28 high and the $5,600all-time high. A City Index analyst forecasts gold reaching $5,500and potentially a new record above $5,600. My longer-term Fibonacciprojections point to $6,100-$7,200. Key downside supports remain at $5,000(psychological) and $4,850 (50 EMA confluence).What is the Strait ofHormuz and why does it matter for oil prices?The Straitof Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handlingapproximately 20% of the world's daily oil trade and 20% of global LNGshipments. Iran's coastline forms the strait's northern edge, giving it theability to threaten or block transit. With 100+ tankers halted and two shipsalready attacked, the disruption is real and immediate. Wood Mackenzie warnsof $100 oil if closure persists, Goldman Sachs has calculatedan $18/barrel real-time risk premium already priced in, andCNBC analysts have raised the possibility of a 1970s-style energy shock ifthe closure continues.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.