DXY | Will the US Dollar Index make it over 100 again?U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYDatTongMacro approach: - The DXY rebounded firmly this week, gaining more than 1% from last week's close, supported by safe-haven demand and stronger-than-expected US economic data. - The US dollar index found support amid escalating geopolitical tensions following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered broad safe-haven flows into the greenback. Monday's ISM Manufacturing report added further tailwind, with the Feb reading coming in at 52.4, above the 51.8 consensus, while the ISM Prices Paid sub-index surged to a 3.5-year high of 70.5, reducing market expectations for near-term Fed easing and lifting Treasury yields. The combination of firmer inflation expectations and rising yields reinforced the dollar's interest-rate differentials versus peers. - Looking ahead, the DXY could face key directional tests from the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report; a strong Feb jobs print may reinforce the Fed's 'patient' stance and extend the dollar's recovery, while a weak reading could reignite aggressive rate-cut bets and pressure the index lower. Markets currently price the Fed to cut rates by 0.5% through 2026, with the next FOMC meeting on Mar 17–18 acting as the next major policy catalyst. Technical approach: - DXY strongly rose after breaking above both the EMA and the descending trendline. The price is trading within the ascending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal. - If DXY breaches above 99.45, the index may continue to surge to retest the resistance at 100.25. - On the contrary, staying below 99.45 may prompt a correction to retest the support at 98.70. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness