艾莎, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS, MEAGHAN TOBIN2026年3月3日一艘油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，摄于上周。途经伊朗南部边境这条狭窄水道的航运船只已大幅减少。 Fadel Senna/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLast year, as President Trump swung from one erratic tariff policy to the next, Asian economies largely withstood the chaos. That resilience is now under threat as a conflict in the Middle East rapidly escalates, after Mr. Trump said that the U.S. military would continue to strike Iran for several weeks.去年，特朗普总统反复无常地推出一项又一项关税政策时，亚洲经济体总体上经受住了动荡的冲击。但如今，随着中东冲突迅速升级，这种韧性正面临威胁。此前，特朗普表示，美军将在接下来的数周内继续对伊朗发动打击。Concern spiked in many Asian capitals on Monday over the disruption to the flow of oil from the Middle East, a region that supplies half or more of the oil that several large economies consume.周一，中东石油供应中断引发了许多亚洲国家政府的担忧，中东地区为数个大型经济体提供了一半甚至更多的石油供应。In China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India, leaders are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor on Iran’s southern border through which one fifth of the world’s supply of oil flows, much of it eventually landing in Asia.在中国、日本、韩国、台湾和印度，领导人都将目光聚焦在霍尔木兹海峡——这是一条位于伊朗南部边境的狭窄航运通道，全球五分之一的石油供应经由此地运输，其中大部分最终流向亚洲。Countries have stockpiles of oil and gas that can see them through the next weeks and months, but a longer war in the region or decision by Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would pose a more serious threat to their economies.各国都拥有可支撑未来数周乃至数月的石油和天然气储备，但如果该地区爆发一场更持久的战争，或伊朗决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这些国家的经济将面临更为严峻的威胁。Experts said that Iran was unlikely to try to block the waterway because the country depends on its oil and gas exports to China for revenue. It would also be catastrophic for the global economy, economists warned.专家表示，伊朗不太可能尝试封锁这条水道，因为该国依赖向中国出口石油和天然气获取收入。经济学家警告称，此举也将对全球经济造成灾难性后果。Nevertheless, there was palpable concern in the oil markets, with prices spiking on Monday. Tankers avoided the area and diverted to longer routes, while the cost of insuring them began to climb and ports started to contend with backlogs.尽管如此，石油市场仍弥漫着明显的不安情绪，周一油价飙升。油轮避开该地区，改走更长的航线；与此同时，保险成本开始上升，港口也开始面临积压压力。The price swings and uncertainty are complicating an already delicate balance governments have struck between domestic economic challenges and geopolitical calculations.价格的剧烈波动和不确定性使各国政府在应对国内经济挑战与地缘政治考量之间本已脆弱的平衡变得更加难以维系。China on Monday called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent the regional instability from exerting a greater impact on global economic development,” according to Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry.中国外交部发言人毛宁周一表示，中方敦促“各方立即停止军事行动，避免紧张事态进一步升级，防止地区局势动荡对全球经济发展造成更大影响”。Oil from the Middle East is crucial to China’s overall energy security. If the conflict were to drag on, “China does not have the capacity to cushion the shock,” said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst based in Singapore for Kpler, a market research firm. “It would be catastrophic not just for China, but for the global market,” Ms. Xu said.中东石油对中国整体能源安全至关重要。如果冲突持续，“中国没有能力缓冲这样的冲击”，总部位于新加坡的市场研究公司Kpler高级原油分析师徐牧宇表示。“这不仅对中国而言将是灾难性的，对全球市场也是如此，”她说。北京的一个加油站。来自中东的石油对中国的整体能源安全至关重要。Beijing is already facing an economic slowdown at home, where a property crisis weighs heavily on households that invested their savings in real estate. Excessive competition among local companies in China has set off a deflationary spiral, and youth unemployment is high. Beijing has turned to manufacturing to help fuel its economic growth and weather a fierce trade war with the United States that led to punishing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that at one point hit 145 percent.北京已经面临国内经济放缓的问题，房地产危机给将积蓄投入房产的家庭带来沉重打击。中国本土企业之间的过度竞争引发了通缩螺旋，青年失业率居高不下。北京已转向依赖制造业来推动经济增长，并抵御与美国激烈的贸易战——这场贸易战导致美国对中国商品征收惩罚性关税，最高一度达到145%。In a few weeks, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is expected to meet with Mr. Trump in what may now become an even more tense encounter.再过几周，中国最高领导人习近平预计将与特朗普会晤，这场会面如今可能变得更加紧张。China imports a little over half of its seaborne crude oil from the Middle East. Around a quarter of that comes from Iran. A loss of Iranian supply would eventually force China to purchase more oil, likely at higher prices, from other sources.中国从中东进口的海运原油略高于其总进口量的一半，其中约四分之一来自伊朗。若伊朗供应中断，最终将迫使中国从其他来源购买更多石油，且价格很可能更高。China has enough crude oil onshore to last 115 days, according to Kpler. It also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan and are shielded from Middle East disruptions.根据Kpler的数据，中国陆上原油储备足以支撑115天的需求。中国还运营着三条主要原油管道，其中两条从俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦输油，不受中东地区供应中断的影响。The ruling Communist Party has poured billions of dollars into developing renewable energy like solar power and electric vehicles. But, in the short term, it would have to look for new supplies of oil in a prolonged crisis.执政的共产党已投入数十亿美元发展太阳能、电动汽车等可再生能源。但在短期内，若危机长期化，中国仍需寻找新的石油供应来源。“China can’t pivot to domestic demand fast enough to offset collapsing export margins and absorb an oil price shock simultaneously,” said Han Lin, the country director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm. “The U.S. trade war compresses the very profits Chinese industry needs to fund the green-energy transition that would reduce Middle East exposure.”“中国无法迅速转向内需，既抵消出口利润的下滑，又同时消化油价冲击，”咨询公司亚洲集团中国区负责人林汉昇表示。“美国的贸易战压缩了中国工业需要用来为绿色能源转型融资的利润，而这场转型本可减少对中东的依赖。”On Sunday, the Japanese shipping giant Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, one of the world’s largest transporters of fuel, announced that it was halting operations in the Persian Gulf following reports that the Iranian military was cautioning vessels to avoid the strait.周日，全球最大的燃料运输商之一、日本航运巨头商船三井宣布，公司已暂停在波斯湾的运营。此前有报道称，伊朗军方警告船只避开该海峡。For now, both countries have measures to offset the immediate effects.目前，两国都有措施来抵消眼前的冲击。Japan holds a total of 254 days of private and state-held oil reserves, according to government data. South Korea had enough in store to cover more than 210 days of consumption as of the end of last year, data from the country’s state-owned national oil and gas company indicated.根据政府数据，日本持有的私人及国家石油储备合计可支撑254天。韩国国有石油和天然气公司数据显示，截至去年年底，韩国的储备足以满足210多天的消费需求。“We will take every possible measure to ensure the stable supply of energy for our nation,” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan said, speaking in Parliament on Monday.“我们将采取一切可能的措施，确保国家能源供应的稳定，”日本首相高市早苗周一在国会表示。In South Korea, officials began examining contingency plans, including the release of oil reserves should there be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to local media reports.据当地媒体报道，韩国官员已开始研究应急方案，其中包括如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，将释放石油储备。But even if oil keeps flowing, a continuing surge in energy prices will probably take a significant economic toll.但即便石油供应得以维持，能源价格持续飙升也可能对经济造成重大冲击。Japan and South Korea already spend well over $100 billion annually on energy imports, meaning that further price increases would worsen their trade balances.日本和韩国每年在能源进口上的支出已超过1000亿美元，这意味着价格进一步上涨将恶化它们的贸易平衡。Japan, in particular, is also grappling with a prolonged bout of inflation that is weighing on household budgets. Any government moves to lighten the burden on consumers, such as cash handouts or tax cuts, risk exacerbating Japan’s immense sovereign debt levels and could spur further jitters in its debt markets.尤其是日本，该国还在承受一轮持续的通胀，给家庭预算带来了沉重负担。任何减轻消费者负担的政府举措——如发放现金补贴或减税——都有可能加剧日本本已庞大的主权债务水平，并引发债市新的不安。Nearby in Taiwan, a dependence on imported fuel has long been one of the island democracy’s most glaring vulnerabilities.在邻近的台湾，对进口燃料的依赖长期以来一直是这个岛屿民主政体最明显的脆弱处之一。Taiwan imports more than 96 percent of its energy, most of it from the Middle East. About 60 percent of Taiwan’s oil — and about a third of its natural gas — arrives by ship from countries via the Strait of Hormuz.台湾96%以上的能源依赖进口，大多来自中东。约60%的石油以及约三分之一的天然气经由霍尔木兹海峡从相关国家海运而来。Any shortage of energy supplies to Taiwan could endanger the global economy, which relies on the island’s manufacturing powerhouses for semiconductors used in smartphones, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence systems. A handful of factories in Taiwan make the vast majority of the world’s advanced computer chips, and they depend on a consistent supply of electricity.台湾能源供应的任何短缺都可能危及全球经济，因为全球经济依赖台湾的制造巨头生产智能手机、电动汽车和人工智能系统所需的半导体。台湾少数几家工厂生产着全球绝大多数的先进芯片，而这些工厂依赖稳定的电力供应。Saudi Arabia is Taiwan’s largest supplier of oil, and Taiwan gets a quarter of its liquefied natural gas from Qatar.沙特阿拉伯是台湾最大的石油供应国，台湾四分之一的液化天然气来自卡塔尔。Taiwan has enough oil in reserve to power the country for about 120 days, according to Chen Shih-Hau, a director focused on energy security at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a private research group. Taiwan’s natural gas supply would last only about 11 days, Mr. Chen said.根据私人研究机构台湾经济研究院负责能源安全事务的研究五所所长陈诗豪表示，台湾的石油储备足以支撑约120天的能源供应，而天然气供应仅能维持约11天。台湾少数几家工厂——如台积电运营的这家工厂——生产了世界上绝大多数的先进计算机芯片。Major tech companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company have backup generators designed to keep power running during short-term emergencies, said Jheng Ruei-he, a senior analyst at Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a government-funded think tank in Taipei. But such equipment isn’t meant to be a long term stand-in for the national power grid.政府资助、总部位于台北的智库中华经济研究院高级分析师郑睿合表示，台积电等大型科技公司配备了应急发电机，以在短期紧急情况下维持供电，但这些设备无法长期替代国家电网。Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a statement on Monday that the country had long-term contingency plans to ensure a stable power supply.台湾经济事务主管部门周一在一份声明中表示，台湾已制定长期应急预案，以确保电力供应稳定。Alex Travelli自新德里、Murphy Zhao自香港、Amy Chang Chien自台北对本文有报道贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。River Akira Davis常驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。