February 27 was a big day for ex-Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, his deputy Manish Sisodia and their Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). In some ways, it may turn out to be even bigger than December 8, 2013, when the Delhi Assembly poll outcome saw the then debutant AAP putting up a stunning performance just 13 months after its formation, bagging 28 of 70 seats as against the BJP’s 31. To keep the BJP at bay, the then incumbent Congress was forced to help the AAP form its first government under Kejriwal.In 2015 and 2020, the AAP swept Delhi, winning 67 and 62 seats, respectively, as against the BJP’s 3 and 8 seats, even as the Congress failed to open its account in both elections. The AAP also went on to clinch the 2022 Punjab polls by a landslide, winning 92 of 117 seats as against the incumbent Congress’s 18.AdvertisementHowever, the 2021-2022 Delhi excise policy “scam” dealt a body blow to the AAP, which saw its several top leaders, including Kejriwal and Sisodia, being imprisoned for months. This marked the first time in the country’s history that a sitting CM was jailed. It demoralised the AAP leaders and workers, leading to the party’s defeat in the 2025 Delhi polls at the hands of the BJP.It also shocked the AAP leaders into silence. The usually feisty AAP leaders chose to lie low, leave aside take on the BJP government in the national capital. It seemed as if the AAP may gradually wither away – or so the BJP had perhaps calculated.Explained | Court discharges Kejriwal, Sisodia in excise case: Why collapse of CBI case is a blow to ED probeAnd then came the discharge of Kejriwal, Sisodia and 21 others in the excise policy case by a Delhi court last Friday, which has galvanised the AAP rank and file.AdvertisementSince then, Kejriwal has struck while the iron is hot. He visited the Hanuman temple – he is a known Hanuman devotee. Along with Sisodia, the AAP chief also addressed a press conference, highlighting the party’s “kaam ki rajniti” which, they alleged, the BJP tried to sabotage by framing them in the liquor policy case through the CBI and ED.On Sunday, the AAP held a rally at Jantar Mantar involving all its senior leaders, including Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann. The venue has had a historical association with the AAP as it was the karmabhoomi of the India Against Corruption movement in 2011, which spawned the party.Addressing the gathering, the AAP leaders made it clear that the party now intended to go “national” and occupy the anti-BJP space. In an impassioned call, they said while building schools and hospitals and providing jobs are real “desh bhakti”, they believed that “Narendra Modi ke atyachar se desh ko mukta karana” would also be “desh bhakti”.It remains to be seen how the AAP leaders’ discharge plays out politically, but Delhi AAP chief Saurabh Bhardwaj asserted that Kejriwal would now be “more active in national politics”.The special CBI judge’s verdict that there was no conspiracy or criminal intent behind the Delhi excise policy “scam” is expected to restore some of the moral capital that Kejriwal and his team lost. Its honesty card had been the AAP’s USP.Aware of the damage caused by the “liquorgate”, Kejriwal has maintained that the trial court has restored their “kattar imandari”, underlining that it has thrown out the case against them at the preliminary stage before even the commencement of the trial.The AAP leaders have also highlighted that while discharging them, special judge Jitendra Singh also came down heavily on the CBI. The trial court’s censure of the CBI evoked the Supreme Court’s scathing observations in the coal scam in 2013 during the previous Congress-led UPA regime, when the apex court had called the CBI a “caged parrot” following his master’s voice.This time, the trial court castigated the CBI for coming to “choreographed” and “premeditated” conclusions.While the CBI has moved the Delhi High Court challenging the discharge of Kejriwal and others, the trial court’s ruling has undermined the ED’s money laundering case against the AAP leaders as its predicate offence was the CBI’s corruption case.Fallout of dischargeThe clean chit given to the AAP leaders by the court has already boosted the morale of the AAP workers, who are expected to fight a slew of coming electoral battles with a renewed vigour.While the AAP may not be a factor in the elections slated for 2026 – in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal or Assam – the party could play a decisive role in states bound for polls in 2027 – such as Punjab, Gujarat, Goa and to a degree even UP – which would set the stage for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.An enthused AAP is expected to go all out to retain Punjab, where the Congress is hoping to gain ground. If the Congress, which has got a good chance of wresting Kerala from the LDF, manages to win back Punjab, that would give the grand old party five states under its belt by next year. If push came to shove, the BJP might even prefer the AAP’s continuation in Punjab rather than having the Congress pick momentum in its favour nationally.The Congress has alleged that there was a tacit understanding between the AAP and the BJP. Debunking it sharply, Kerjiwal pointed out that it was only the AAP leaders who were sent to jail, not Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi or Robert Vadra.In Gujarat, the home state of PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the AAP is likely to cut into the Congress’s base. This is what happened there in the 2022 elections when the AAP, while winning only 5 seats, polled almost 13% votes, denting the Congress, which plunged to just 17 seats of 182 as against the BJP’s 156.Significantly, while the Congress took a swipe at the AAP following the discharge of its leaders, other key members of the Opposition INDIA alliance, including the SP, TMC and DMK, welcomed the court’s verdict.Kejriwal thanked SP chief Akhilesh Yadav for his support. The AAP had tried to align with the SP in the 2022 UP polls, but their alliance had not fructified. With the Muslim community leaning towards the Congress in UP, the SP would find it difficult to dump the Congress, though.you may likeUnless Kejriwal is accepted as the leader of a non-Congress, non-BJP front of regional parties or a third front, his task would be cut out – to build his party as an alternative to the Congress as the principal Opposition against the BJP. But, then, why would TMC supremo and three-term Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, who is eyeing the Opposition bloc’s stewardship herself, accept his leadership?The discordant voices in the Opposition camp would be music to the BJP’s ears. As the AAP gets a new lease of life, it may well end up helping the BJP in the short term in some state elections. However, with the party using its new-found energy to expand its footprint across the country, it may also pose a challenge to the BJP in the long run.(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’.)