Marco Rubio Says Iran Has Weapons 'Solely Designed To Attack America,' But What Do Prediction Markets Say?

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};ge("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat($n)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat(Xn))};t.notifDropdown&&so(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Daragh ThomasSun, March 1, 2026 at 12:45 PM GMT+1 3 min readSecretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran possesses conventional weapons “solely designed to attack America and attack Americans if they so choose to do so.”He warned Tehran is pursuing intercontinental ballistic missiles and called its refusal to discuss the missile program a “big problem.”Vice President JD Vance went further: “You can’t let the craziest and worst regime in the world have nuclear weapons.”Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei spoke on Monday with language that left zero room for interpretation: “An act of aggression would be regarded as an act of aggression. Period. Any state would react ferociously.”Don't Miss:Explore the Fire-Safe Energy Storage Company With $185M in Contracted RevenueBefore the IPO: How One Company Quietly Locked Up 500+ Iconic Character RightsYet on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a different tone, saying a deal was “within reach” if “diplomacy is given priority.”The mixed messaging captures the bind Tehran is in: threatening retaliation while signaling it would rather negotiate.A third round of talks opened Thursday in Geneva.Polymarket’s “US strikes Iran by…?” market has now crossed $430 million in total volume, making it one of the largest current markets on Polymarket.Near-term odds remain moderate: 10% by end of February.But by March 31, the odds of a strike have moved from 30% to 55% in a week, as the talks have not led to a cooling of tempers.Trending: Blue-chip art has historically outpaced the S&P 500 since 1995, and fractional investing is now opening this institutional asset class to everyday investors.The odds of a strike this year have held roughly steady, at 70%.On the diplomacy side, a US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31 is priced at just 30%. A deal before 2027 is a coin flip at 50%.A separate contract pricing an Iranian strike on U.S. military assets by March 31 sits at 30%.RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) supplied the key weapons used in the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.Boeing built the 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs that collapsed the Fordow enrichment facility, while RTX’s Tomahawk cruise missiles hit Isfahan.A renewed military campaign would likely mean fresh orders for both.RTX carries a $251 billion backlog and its stock has gained over 38% in the past year.See Also: This Under-$1 Pre-IPO AI Company Is Still Open to Retail Investors — Learn MorePalantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), whose Pentagon analytics platforms underpin U.S. targeting and intelligence operations in the Gulf, tends to catch a bid every time the military footprint expands.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,872.07 -6.81 (-0.10%)Dow 3048,862.22 -115.70 (-0.24%)Nasdaq22,704.76 +36.55 (+0.16%)Russell 20002,651.07 +18.71 (+0.71%)VIX21.50 +1.64 (+8.27%)Gold5,350.40 +102.50 (+1.95%)Trending tickersBRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 482.37 -22.59 (-4.47%)BTC-USD Bitcoin USD 69,164.51 +3,888.00 (+5.96%)AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. 205.71 -46.54 (-18.45%)F Ford Motor Company 13.36 -0.73 (-5.18%)LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation 672.79 +18.16 (+2.77%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersEMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. 10.36 +2.39 (+30.03%)AXTI AXT, Inc. 46.23 +8.33 (+21.95%)OCUL Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. 10.92 +1.98 (+22.09%)AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. 102.26 +18.03 (+21.41%)FIGR Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. 30.45 +5.16 (+20.43%)Top losersAVAV AeroVironment, Inc. 205.92 -46.33 (-18.37%)TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. 112.78 -24.21 (-17.67%)AES The AES Corporation 14.31 -2.98 (-17.22%)ELF e.l.f. 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