BTC - 0.5 Breach is No Easy TaskBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTBTC has seen a strong bounce today, which is encouraging. However, it’s very important to keep the macro trend in mind. Looking back at my previous post—which accurately identified Bitcoin’s next macro lower high at $98k, it’s crucial to re-examine the Fibonacci structure. Price is now in its fourth consecutive week trading below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This is not a level to dismiss lightly. Historically, BTC respected the 0.5 Fibonacci as a major supply zone for eight months (March 2024–October 2024) before finally breaking above it. This price range also aligns with the 2021 market cycle top, making it an extremely important liquidity zone. As long as BTC continues to trade below this level, price action favors a revisit toward $60k rather than a move toward $80k. I’ve added black circles to highlight every instance where Bitcoin printed weekly candle closes below the 0.5 Fibonacci level, similar to what we’re seeing now. For bullish continuation, it is crucial for price to break above $70k and hold above it. Only then does a move toward the $80k range become the likely outcome. If price continues to see lower-timeframe rejections around $70k, the probability of revisiting the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $57k–$60k increases significantly. I just made a TradingView post on the most recent LTF rejection that can be found here. This scenario is also supported by the weekly RSI. While the recent bounce has pushed RSI back above the 30 level (oversold conditions), another rejection at current resistance could cause RSI to roll over from 30, sending BTC towards that 0.618. I’ve also added the VRVP on the right side of the chart to highlight how critical current price levels are from a volume perspective. The VRVP shows a large volume cluster between roughly $56k and $71k, which I’ve outlined with a green box. This range can be viewed as an accumulation zone. However, if price continues to get rejected near the upper boundary of this volume cluster, it becomes more likely that BTC will rotate back toward the lower end of the range. The VRVP also clearly marked the $98k lower high, which I’ve outlined with a red box. At that level, sellers overwhelmed buyers with supply, pushing price back down into this high-volume area. If BTC reclaims the 0.5 Fibonacci level on a weekly close, I will publish a follow-up post, as that scenario opens the door for a rebound toward $84k. At this time, however, this remains the less likely outcome. The macro structure still suggests that bears remain in control, and a test of the 0.618 Fibonacci level is the more probable path. This week will be an extremely important one for structural developments.