Daily Briefing: India’s priorities amid the US-Israel-Iran war

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A note of caution: The Ministry of External Affairs had advised the Commerce Ministry against a “ministerial meeting” with Microsoft cofounder and philanthropist Bill Gates during his visit to India last month amid renewed global scrutiny over Gates’s associations with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The advice came in response to the Ministry seeking MEA’s opinion regarding an event organised by industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) to mark its centenary year on February 19, the same day when the India AI Impact Summit began. The MEA’s note of caution came amid widespread global scrutiny of Gates’s relationship with Epstein, which reportedly began in 2011, three years after Epstein’s initial conviction for sex crimes involving minors.With that, let’s move on to the top five stories from today’s edition: Big StoryThe Middle East conflict on Wednesday entered a volatile fifth day, witnessing intensive large-scale combat operations since the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the past 24 hours, Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian missile launchers and a nuclear research site, while Iran struck back, targeting US embassies and disrupting energy supplies and travel across the Gulf region. Follow here to receive the latest updates on the US-Israel-Iran war.On the Govt table: As the war rages, the Indian government is preparing on three key fronts: safety of its citizens in West Asian countries, protecting the middle class from any impact of oil prices, and aligning its diplomatic outreach in the region with national interest in mind. Nearly 10 million Indian citizens live in West Asian countries, and their safety has become a point of great concern for the government. The internal assessment is that the war may be over in a week, according to top sources, who added that the government is preparing for the worst, that is, the war carrying on for six months.Stockpile: Amid the ongoing crisis in West Asia, a senior official from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) said that India possesses crude oil and fuel stocks that would last six to eight weeks and is in a “reasonably comfortable” position to prevent any near-term supply shortage when it comes to major fuels like petrol, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). However, in the case of liquefied natural gas (LNG), India’s cushion is thinner as additional LNG stockpiling is significantly more challenging than crude oil and petroleum fuels. This is because India’s largest LNG supplier, Qatar, has also halted LNG production after a couple of its facilities were attacked by Iran.⚡ Only in ExpressThe number of Indian migrants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has jumped from roughly 0.97 million in the early 2000s to about 3.56 million now. This makes Indians (NRIs and PIOs included) the largest expatriate group in the UAE, accounting for one-third of its migrant population, followed by Pakistanis, Filipinos and Egyptians. At 3.3 million, Indians make up as much as 35% of the country’s population. As the consequences of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran spread across the Gulf region, these numbers are among those directly impacted. The Indian government early this week stated that their “safety and well-being is of utmost priority. We cannot be impervious to any development that negatively affects them.” My colleagues Divya A and Vikas Pathak explore the relationship between India and the UAE, based on growing numbers, widening trade and expanding diversity. Express ExplainedStory continues below this adFollowing the Supreme Court’s “complete blanket ban” on the NCERT class 8 social science textbook over a section on “corruption in the judiciary” last week, Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said action would be taken against those who were involved in preparing the chapter. The NCERT comprises a set of groups and committees that prepare and oversee the new textbooks being developed in line with the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 and the National Curriculum Framework for School Education (NCFSE) 2023. What are these groups and committees, and what is the process behind drafting the books? We explain.✍️ Express OpinionIn our Opinion section today, C Raja Mohan delves deeper into the role of minorities in Iran in shaping the country’s political future. Kurdish geography continues to cast a large shadow on Middle East politics, with Kurds insisting on having a voice in any political rearrangement of Iran after the fall of the Islamic Republic. Raja Mohan writes: “This brings us to a question often debated in Israel and the US: Can Iran’s ethnic and sectarian divides be leveraged to produce regime change? Probing the internal contradictions of an adversary — its domestic cleavages as well as the fragility of its alliances — has been integral to strategy since antiquity. It remains central today in the contest between the US-Israel coalition and Iran.”⏳And Finally…A cricket feast: The New Zealand versus South Africa T20 World Cup semifinal at Eden Gardens on Tuesday will be as vibrantly colourful as the Holi festivities outside the arena, with varied layers of artful deception. With a brilliant line-up of power hitters and cultured strikers, the two teams have everything that is valued in the format, writes Sandip G. “It’s a closer contest than their journeys in the tournament suggest. South Africa have been strolling, huffing only against Afghanistan; New Zealand scraped into the last four, pipping Pakistan on net run rate. But the format’s nature is that it takes just a red hot spell or a shower of sixes to flip the script. Both sides have individual firepower.”That’s it for today!Until next time,Ariba Business As Usual by E P Unny