STEVEN ERLANGER2026年3月4日卡塔尔多哈周日遭袭后的现场。伊朗正致力于扩大战场范围。 Mahmud Hams/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump — in terms of American casualties, energy costs and inflation — to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home.伊朗伊斯兰共和国的首要任务是生存。为此，其领导人将设法提高这场战争带给特朗普总统的代价——无论是美军伤亡、能源价格或是通胀——试图说服他宣告胜利、收兵回国。Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, diplomats and analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighboring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic — all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. Iran will also be trying to exhaust the number of expensive missile interceptors held by its enemies.外交官和分析人士表示，面对美国和以色列的压倒性火力，伊朗正努力将战场从本国领土扩大至整个地区。其目标包括破坏邻国油气基础设施、封锁霍尔木兹海峡航运、削减空中交通。所有这些都是为了扰乱波斯湾国家的经济，推高全球能源价格与通胀。伊朗还将试图耗尽对手昂贵的导弹拦截系统储备。“The war has become a test of wills and stamina,” said Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “Iran is facing qualitatively superior militaries, so the strategy is to test their will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing the danger to the world economy.”“这场战争已成为意志与耐力的较量，”华盛顿约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的瓦利·纳赛尔说。“伊朗面对的是质量上占优的军队，因此其战略是通过扩大战场、将战争复杂化、增加对世界经济的威胁，来考验对方的意志。”The strategy is not complicated.这一战略并不复杂。Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said, “The Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbors, hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.”总部位于布鲁塞尔的智库国际危机组织伊朗项目负责人阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“伊朗人企图不惜代价将痛苦扩散至最大范围，即便这意味着与邻国关系破裂，希望制造足够多的反战压力，迫使特朗普总统收手。”“For the Islamic Republic,” he added, “survival is a victory, even if it is a Pyrrhic one.”“对伊斯兰共和国而言，”他补充道，“生存就是胜利，哪怕是一场惨胜。”周二，美以空袭后德黑兰正在清理瓦砾。一位分析人士表示：“这场战争已演变成意志与耐力的较量。”The plan is so-called asymmetric endurance, accepting initial damage to preserve the ability to escalate when Israeli, American and Persian Gulf air defenses are stretched thin. The thinking behind that strategy is that Mr. Trump, facing midterm elections and a skeptical MAGA movement, will choose to curtail the war before American casualties, and inflation, go much higher.该计划就是所谓的非对称持久战：承受初期损失，以保留升级战事的实力，待以色列、美国及波斯湾地区防空力量捉襟见肘时再行反击。这一战略背后的判断是：面临中期选举与“让美国再次伟大”运动内部质疑的特朗普，会选择在美国伤亡和通胀进一步攀升前结束战争。Already, U.S. and even some European bases and embassies have been attacked, six American troops have been killed and three planes shot down. Hezbollah has entered the war, and the Persian Gulf countries are anxious and running out of expensive interceptors used against cheap Iranian drones. Saudi and Qatari energy installations have been struck. Oil and gas prices have shot up and shipping has practically stopped through the Strait of Hormuz, through which at least a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas normally travels.目前，美国甚至部分欧洲国家的基地与使馆已遭袭击，六名美军士兵死亡，三架飞机被击落。真主党已参战，波斯湾国家焦虑不安，用于拦截廉价伊朗无人机的昂贵拦截弹即将耗尽。沙特与卡塔尔能源设施遭袭。油气价格暴涨，霍尔木兹海峡航运几乎停滞——全球至少五分之一的石油与天然气通常经由这里运输。Ali Larijani, secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, claimed on social media on Monday that Iran, “unlike the United States, has prepared itself for a long war,” including plans for gradual escalation and expansion of the battlefield.伊朗国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼周一在社交媒体上宣称，伊朗“与美国不同，已为长期战争做好准备”，包括逐步升级与扩大战场的计划。Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst, called the conflict “a race for and against time.” Israel, the United States and their allies are trying to destroy missiles, launchers and communication nodes as quickly as possible, he said, so that more advanced Iranian missiles cannot easily be launched when interceptors are in short supply.军事分析师弗朗茨-斯特凡·加迪称这场冲突是“一场争取时间又在对抗时间的较量”。他表示，以色列、美国及其盟友正试图尽快摧毁导弹、发射装置与通信节点，以便在拦截弹短缺时，伊朗更先进的导弹无法轻易发射。Even the heavily armed Israel, toward the end of the 12-day war against Iran in June, had to limit its use of interceptors, allowing some Iranian missiles to land if they were not deemed to be close to key sites or cities.即便是军备雄厚的以色列，在去年6月为期12天的对伊朗战争接近尾声时也不得不限制拦截弹的使用，允许部分未靠近关键地点或城市的伊朗导弹落地。耶路撒冷防空系统周日开火拦截伊朗发射的导弹。If Iran’s strategy is clear, so are the risks. And those are already coming into view.如果说伊朗的战略清晰，那么其风险也同样明显。而这些风险已初现端倪。On Monday, Mr. Trump vowed to continue the war for at least another month and did not rule out the use of American ground troops. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “The hardest hits are yet to come,” and the Pentagon said it would send more soldiers and fighter jets to the war.周一，特朗普誓言将战争至少再持续一个月，且不排除动用美国地面部队。国务卿鲁比奥表示：“最猛烈的打击还在后头。”五角大楼称将向战场增派士兵与战斗机。And there are suggestions, analysts say, that the United States is encouraging Iranian minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, to rise up against the government, bombing police and army positions in those territories, hoping to create at least the start of a popular uprising.分析人士称，有迹象显示，美国正在鼓动库尔德人、俾路支人等伊朗少数族群反抗政府，轰炸这些地区的警察与军队据点，希望至少为民意起事的开端创造条件。Although Iran has attacked Persian Gulf countries, including hotels and airports, Tehran has so far failed to drive a wedge between them and Washington.尽管伊朗已袭击多个波斯海湾国家，包括酒店与机场，但德黑兰迄今未能在这些国家与华盛顿之间制造裂痕。The nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, issued a statement on Sunday underlining “their unified stance in confronting these attacks, stressing that the security of G.C.C. member states is indivisible” and reserving the right to respond in self-defense.包括沙特在内的海湾合作委员会国家周日发表声明，强调“在应对这些袭击上立场统一，强调海合会成员国安全不可分割”，并保留自卫反击权利。While calling for a cessation of hostilities, the members have not criticized the U.S.-Israel war against Iran and are likely to allow American forces to have overflight rights, which they denied at the start of the war.这些成员国虽呼吁停止敌对行动，但并未批评美以对伊战争，且可能允许美军飞越其领空——这一权利在战争初期曾被它们拒绝。In the past, the Persian Gulf nations have acted as mediators, urging Washington to pursue negotiations with Tehran instead of war. But, under attack from Iran, those countries are now more likely to allow American forces greater operational access to their airspace and territory that would help the United States conduct operations more efficiently, said Hasan T. Alhasan, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London research organization.伦敦研究机构国际战略研究所的中东专家哈桑·阿尔哈桑表示，以往，波斯湾国家曾扮演调解者，敦促华盛顿与德黑兰谈判而非开战。但如今在遭到伊朗袭击后，这些国家更可能向美军提供更大的空域与领土行动便利，帮助美军更高效地开展行动。Britain, France and Germany, which have criticized Iran but did not initially support this war, have also now indicated that they could act to protect their own troops and interests in the Persian Gulf, Mr. Alhasan told the BBC, “because everyone realizes that the collective global interest here is at stake.”英国、法国和德国虽然批评伊朗，但最初并未支持这场战争。这些国家现在也表示可能采取行动保护自己在波斯湾的部队和利益，阿尔哈桑告诉BBC，“因为所有人都意识到，这里涉及的是全球共同利益”。But having tried to wean itself off Russian gas, Europe is more dependent than ever on energy from the Persian Gulf, while half of India’s oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. So pressures on Mr. Trump to shorten the war will grow, even if Israel is anxious to force a conclusion to end the threat of the Islamic Republic.但欧洲在努力摆脱对俄罗斯天然气依赖后，比以往任何时候都更依赖波斯湾能源；印度一半的石油也需经霍尔木兹海峡运输。因此，即便以色列急于一劳永逸消除伊朗伊斯兰共和国的威胁，要求特朗普缩短战争的压力也会不断加大。黎巴嫩贝鲁特的一所学校被用作被迫逃离家园者的避难所。Mr. Trump often talks about wanting to do a deal with Iran and has recently brought up the example of Venezuela, where he was content to capture President Nicolás Maduro but leave his government largely in place. “What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect, the perfect scenario,” Mr. Trump told The New York Times on Sunday.特朗普经常谈及希望与伊朗达成协议，最近还以委内瑞拉为例：他满足于抓捕总统马杜罗而基本保留其政府架构。“我们在委内瑞拉的做法，我认为是完美、完美的范例，”特朗普周日对《纽约时报》表示。It may be that Iran, too, will replace the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on the first day of the war, with a less ideological government that could be willing to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program to preserve the system.伊朗也有可能替换战争首日身亡的最高领袖哈梅内伊，组建一个意识形态色彩更淡的政府，该政府愿意就核计划谈判以保全现有体制。As ever, it is hard to know Mr. Trump’s mind, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group. “Trump already took out Khamenei, which no other president dared to do,” she said. “He has an offramp if he wants, even if Israel sees a momentous window to take out this regime.”欧洲对外关系委员会的伊朗专家埃莉·盖尔马耶赫表示，特朗普的真实想法向来难以捉摸。“特朗普已经除掉了哈梅内伊，这是历任总统都不敢做的，”她说。“即便以色列认为这是推翻该政权的重大窗口期，特朗普仍可随时抽身。”Matthew Kroenig, a former U.S. defense official under Republican presidents who studies Mr. Trump’s foreign policy, agreed. Mr. Trump “is skeptical of long, drawn-out military campaigns” and could be satisfied with a number of outcomes, including the Venezuela model, he said.曾在共和党总统任内担任美国国防官员、研究特朗普外交政策的马修·克罗尼格对此表示赞同。他说，特朗普“对旷日持久的军事行动持怀疑态度”，多种结果都可能让他满意，包括委内瑞拉模式。“They’ve already achieved several of their objectives,” added Mr. Kroenig, who is vice president of the Atlantic Council in Washington. Ayatollah Khamenei and much of the leadership of a major American adversary are dead, and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and other military capabilities are badly degraded, Mr. Kroenig noted.“他们已经实现了多个目标，”兼任华盛顿大西洋理事会副主席的克罗尼格补充说。他指出，最高领袖哈梅内伊以及这个美国主要对手的大部分领导层已经死亡，伊朗核计划、导弹计划及其他军事能力遭到严重削弱。“So I think they could go home almost at any time and declare this a success,” he said. Right now, he added, “I think the strategy is more about what they want to avoid than about exactly what they want to achieve.”“所以我认为他们几乎随时可以宣告胜利并收兵，”他说。他还表示，目前来看，“战略更侧重于规避风险而非追求具体目标。”Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他此前曾在布鲁塞尔、伦敦、巴黎、耶路撒冷、柏林、布拉格、贝尔格莱格、华盛顿、莫斯科和曼谷等地进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。