AUD/USD Surges to Make-or-Break Resistance

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AUD/USD Surges to Make-or-Break ResistanceAustralian Dollar / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:AUDUSDFOREXcomAUD/USD is now poised to mark a third consecutive weekly advance with a 4.6% recovery approaching key resistance once again at the 2023 high close and the August 2022 swing high at 7109/37. Looking for a reaction off this mark in the days ahead. Initial weekly support now rests at the median-line (currently ~7030s) and is backed by the yearly high-week close (HWC) at 6981. Key support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range and the March close low at 6861/77. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and invalidate the 2025 uptrend. A topside breach / weekly close above 7137 is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 advance. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2019 swing high at 7295 which converges on the upper parallel into the monthly cross. Bottom line: A three-week recovery takes AUD/USD back into pivotal resistance near the yearly high - risk for inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above this pivot zone needed to expose a rally towards the next major hurdle at 7200. -MB