MSTR Monthly – Time@Mode cycle signal: October 2022 déjà vu?Strategy Inc Class ABATS:MSTRIvanLabrieTime@Mode just fired a downtrend expiration signal on the MSTR monthly originating from October 2025, and it's structurally the same setup as the one from January to Oct 2022. I want to break down why I think that matters. Then vs. now January 2022: bearish Time@Mode signal triggers, Fed launches the most aggressive tightening cycle since the '80s. What followed was a wrecking ball. LUNA, Three Arrows, Celsius, FTX. MSTR bled from $90 to the $15 zone by October 2022, falling by two times the projected range target. That kind of overshoot is textbook capitulation, and it's exactly where the system flags high-probability reversals when the projected time duration for the move pans out. Now look at today. The October 2025 signal fired with BTC peaking at $126K and MSTR topping near $457. Since then, MSTR has corrected to $137 (70% drawdown), BTC to $71K. Once again, the move has run to almost 2x the projected range in MSTR. Macro rhymes Different catalysts, same function: peak uncertainty, max fear, forced liquidation. 2022: Fed hiking into inflation, crypto contagion (LUNA -> 3AC -> FTX), institutional capitulation across the board. 2025-26: U.S.-Iran conflict (Hormuz disruption, oil above $100), tariff escalation on multiple fronts, Fed frozen at 3.50-3.75%, crypto down $2T+ from the October peak. Both times the narrative at the signal zone was uniformly bearish. October 2022, nobody would touch MSTR. It was a "zero" trade. Today feels the same: Strategy just posted a $14.5B unrealized loss in Q1, BTC is 44% off highs, CryptoQuant is flagging a bear regime they call "worse than 2022." What happened after October 2022 BTC went from $16K to $126K. About 8x. MSTR, being the leveraged beta play, went from $15 to $457. About 30x. The fuel: spot ETF anticipation, the 2024 halving, and the Fed finally cutting in September 2024. What could fuel this one Wars are expensive. Deficits expand. Eventually the Fed has to accommodate. Same script as post-2022 tightening, just with geopolitical spending as the forcing function instead of plandemic stimulus unwind. Saylor holds 780,897 BTC at $59B cost basis and is still buying through the STRC preferred program with $48B in remaining ATM capacity. This is not the fragile MicroStrategy balance sheet of 2022. This capital structure was built for exactly this scenario. And sentiment is washed. ETF outflows until very recently, algo selling below key MAs, sell-side publishing +-$40K BTC targets. That's the kind of positioning extreme you typically see at cycle lows, not cycle tops. The signal Time@Mode doesn't tell you what the catalyst will be. It tells you when the cycle structure is ripe for a momentum or for mean reversion. In January 2022, the signal said "this bear trend has a shelf life." By October 2022, the bottom in QQQ was in. The October 2025 signal is saying the same thing. The bear phase is mature, the overshoot fits the pattern, and the probability of a significant mean reversion from this zone is high. Not investment advice. But I've seen this chart before... Best of luck, Cheers! Ivan Labrie.