Yesterday at 11:39 AM Central a federal jury found Live Nation guilty of illegally monopolizing the ticketing market. 34 state AGs brought the case after rejecting the DOJ settlement. The stock dropped 6.29% on the news. My thesis is simple: the monopoly IS the valuation. Ticketmaster's pricing power, exclusive venue deals, and artist management leverage only work as an integrated system. A forced breakup means the pieces are worth significantly less than the whole. The stock ran from $70 in 2022 to $166 recently, almost entirely on the strength of that monopoly premium. Previous support levels: $145 in March after the DOJ settlement, $130 in November after an earnings miss. Both times it recovered. This verdict is structurally different: they didn't negotiate this outcome and can't control the remedy. Filled at $1.70 this morning when the stock bounced at open. Holding through the remedies phase filing expected late next week unless stock falls before then. Breakeven at $147. Watching for state AG statements and the judge's scheduling order as near term catalysts. Sell at 140 profit: $2490 Sell at 130 profit: $5490 Position size: $510. Max loss: $510. This is not financial advice.   submitted by   /u/Im_Captain_Jack [link]   [comments]