U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — Slipping Back Below the EMAs U.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYbemfundingThe dollar's recovery attempt is fading and the chart is starting to reflect it. After spending most of the year grinding sideways in the 97-101 range following the long decline from the 110 highs in early 2025, the brief push above 100 in March looked like it might finally be the beginning of something more constructive. That optimism has been unwound quickly. Price has now dropped back below both major moving averages and is sitting at levels that, if they give way, leave very little technical support before the February lows come back into focus. Where we stand: Price is currently trading at 98.252, up a negligible 0.03% on the day but effectively flat after several days of steady selling from the 100.50 area. The EMA 100 (99.102) and EMA 200 (98.733) have both been broken again after being briefly reclaimed in March, and price is now sitting below both for the second time in as many months. The EMAs are essentially flat and converging, which reflects the broader lack of directional conviction that has defined this market for most of the past year. That compression tends to resolve eventually, and the recent failure above 100 suggests the resolution may be to the downside. The key question is whether the 97-98 area holds as a floor the way it has multiple times over the past year, or whether the pattern of failed recoveries above 100 is a sign that the next leg is a sustained break below the range. Levels to watch: 98.733 (EMA 200) and 99.102 (EMA 100) are now the immediate resistance overhead. Price just lost both of these levels and they are likely to act as a ceiling on any bounce attempt. Reclaiming both on a daily close would be the minimum needed to suggest this latest breakdown is a false one. 97.000 is the first meaningful support below current price and a level that has held as a floor on multiple occasions over the past year. Losing it on a daily close would be a clear sign that the range is breaking down rather than continuing to hold. 95.800 is the February swing low and the level that defines the lower boundary of the entire year-long range. A move there would bring the dollar to its weakest point since mid-2025 and would represent a significant macro development with implications across most asset classes. Bias: Bearish below 98.733. The failed breakout above 100 and the return below both EMAs puts the path of least resistance back to the downside. Invalidation: Daily close back above 99.102 (EMA 100) with follow-through toward 100. Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.