#202615 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Max bearish. 12 sessions for a 12.98% gain. Opex is over. Markets are free to maybe price the risk of the biggest Oil supply shock in history, appropriately. Let’s see where we close on Monday. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 22000 - 26000 bull case: Overdone, overbought, max complacency into opex. Invalidation is below 24400 bear case: Bears are free of opex and now news are going in their favor again. If oil markets go up, markets will go down. That simple. If we go one tick above 24965, we have not gapped down and continued down, so I am most likely wrong again. Invalidation is above 24971 short term: Oil up, markets down. Follow that one. If Oil rips above 100$ on Monday, expect markets to reverse as much because this rally was beyond everything. Bulls will run for the exits while they can. If they continue to suppress oil futures, well - I continue to be wrong and risk-can will be kicked down the road longer. medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.