Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.Jump to contentIndependentSwipe for next articleIndependent Bulletin homepageDownload our appAllNewsSportCultureLifestyleAthena StavrouMonday 20 April 2026 06:28 BSTStarmer accuses Iran of holding world economy to 'ransom' over Strait of HormuzEconomic forecasters warn Britain's economy is poised to "flirt" with recession, with unemployment set to rise significantly due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.The Item Club report predicts the UK economy will flatline in the second and third quarters of this year, potentially entering a technical recession, and has downgraded 2025 GDP growth to 0.7 per cent.The conflict in Iran is expected to cause higher oil and energy prices, stifling economic activity and leading to the job market's "biggest hit since the pandemic".The jobless rate is anticipated to peak at 5.8 per cent by mid-2027, resulting in nearly 250,000 more people out of work.Despite inflation projected to surge to almost 4 per cent in late 2026, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.In fullUK to ‘flirt’ with recession and 250,000 to lose jobs amid Iran war fallout, warn forecastersThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in