ERIKA SOLOMON2026年4月21日4月，德黑兰，一名女子走过一幅描绘伊朗导弹袭击美国军舰的壁画。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesIn private, Iranian officials say they’re preparing to resume peace talks with the United States. In public, however, they are far more wary, even pugnacious at times, as they blame the White House for putting diplomacy at risk.伊朗官员私下表示正准备恢复与美国的和平谈判。但在公开场合，他们的态度要谨慎得多，有时甚至显得咄咄逼人，指责白宫正在危及外交进程。On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, refused to confirm if Iran would take part in a second round of peace talks in Islamabad this week. Asked about reports of a U.S. delegation planning to travel to Pakistan, Mr. Baghaei curtly called it “their own business.”周一，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴盖伊拒绝证实伊朗是否会参加本周在伊斯兰堡举行的第二轮和谈。当被问及有关美国代表团计划前往巴基斯坦的报道时，巴盖伊简短生硬地称这是"他们自己的事"。Iranian officials “do not see any serious sign of U.S. commitment” to a deal, he said.他表示，伊朗官员“没有看到美国对达成协议作出任何认真承诺的迹象”。Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, then vacillated on the message. While noting the “deep historical mistrust” between Iran and the United States, he said that war would serve neither country’s interests. But soon he too was back with a warning that Americans “seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.”伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安随后对这一表态显得摇摆不定。他指出伊美两国之间存在“深刻的历史不信任”，同时表示战争不符合任何一方的利益。但没过多久，他又发出警告，称美国人“想要伊朗投降。伊朗人不会屈服于武力”。All the while, several officials quietly said Iran was still planning to go to Pakistan and that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the influential head of Iran’s parliament, would lead the delegation if U.S. Vice President JD Vance also attends.与此同时，多名官员私下透露，伊朗仍计划派团前往巴基斯坦，如果美国副总统万斯也出席，将由伊朗颇具影响力的议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫率领代表团。If the messages seemed muddled, they reflect Iran’s quandary. Iran’s leaders are deeply distrustful of Washington, even as they know a deal is critical to easing the country’s dire economic crisis.如果说这些表态显得混乱，那恰恰反映了伊朗的两难处境。伊朗领导人对华盛顿极度不信任，但他们也清楚，达成协议对于缓解本国严峻的经济危机至关重要。They want to strengthen their own hand in any negotiations by showing American officials they will not negotiate if President Trump continues his bluster — from reasserting his naval blockade to insisting that Washington would obtain Iran’s nuclear stockpiles in a deal.他们希望向美国官员表明，如果特朗普总统继续大放厥词——从重申海上封锁到坚称华盛顿将在协议中获得伊朗的核储备——他们就不会进行谈判，以此来增强自己在谈判中的筹码。And they need to hold their hard-line base in check — which still feels emboldened by the war and does not want them to give ground in negotiations.同时，他们还需要稳住国内的强硬派基础——这些人因战争士气高涨，不希望领导层在谈判中做出任何让步。The clock is ticking: the two-week cease-fire between the countries is set to expire early Wednesday in Iran.时间正在一分一秒地流逝：两国之间为期两周的停火协议将于伊朗时间周三凌晨到期。Mr. Pezeshkian said for “reason” to prevail in negotiations that Iran wants stronger signs President Trump would stand by a deal.佩泽什基安表示，要让“理性”在谈判中占据上风，伊朗希望看到能表明特朗普总统将恪守协议的更强有力迹象。The president already pulled out of a previous U.S. nuclear agreement with Iran, officials point out. And he twice joined Israel in a war against Iran as they were trying to negotiate with Washington. Vice President Vance is expected to leave Washington for Pakistan on Tuesday, according to two U.S. officials.官员们指出，这位总统此前曾退出过美国与伊朗达成的核协议。而且在伊朗试图与华盛顿谈判期间，他曾两次联合以色列对伊朗发动战争。据两名美国官员透露，副总统万斯预计将于周二离开华盛顿前往巴基斯坦。Iran’s fiery rhetoric around the resumption of talks reflects the pressures that Iran’s leadership faces, said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.德国国际与安全事务研究所伊朗安全问题专家哈米德礼萨·阿齐兹表示，伊朗在恢复和谈问题上的激烈言辞，反映了伊朗领导层面临的多重压力。One is its own hard-liners, emboldened that their leadership survived a five-week-long U.S.-Israeli onslaught, and who have rallied supporters almost nightly in cities across Iran, waving rifles and chanting against surrender.其中一个压力来自国内的强硬派。他们因领导层挺过了美以长达五周的猛烈攻击而士气高涨，几乎每晚都在伊朗各地城市召集支持者，挥舞着步枪，高呼反对投降的口号。“They have a core support base of the Islamic Republic, which is very hard-line and ideological, and is very sensitive to any sign of a concession,” he said.他说：“他们拥有伊斯兰共和国的核心支持基础，这部分人非常强硬且意识形态化，对任何让步的迹象都极为敏感。”“The other pressure, of course, is Donald Trump — and his apparent willingness to stick to his coercive diplomatic strategy.”“当然，另一个压力来自唐纳德·特朗普——以及他显然愿意坚持其胁迫性外交策略的态度。”He pointed to what happened over the weekend, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced that Iran would reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz.他提到了上周末发生的事情。当时伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐宣布，伊朗将重新开放具有战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。Mr. Araghchi immediately came under criticism from media affiliated with Iran’s powerful and hard-line Revolutionary Guards. Less than an hour later, Mr. Trump said a U.S. naval blockade against Iran would continue. The next day, Iranian forces reimposed their own blockade on the strait.阿拉格齐随即遭到伊朗权势强大的强硬派革命卫队旗下媒体的批评。不到一小时后，特朗普宣布美国对伊朗的海上封锁将继续。次日，伊朗军队重新对霍尔木兹海峡实施了封锁。“I think the Iranians really do want a deal, but Trump is just too crude — he just wants total victory in public,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, the editor of the regional news outlet Amwajmedia.com. “And the Iranians feel like time is on their side.”地区新闻媒体Amwajmedia.com主编穆罕默德·阿里·沙巴尼表示：“我认为伊朗人确实希望达成协议，但特朗普太粗暴了——他只想在公众面前取得全面的胜利。而伊朗人觉得时间站在他们这边。”Iran’s decision to block maritime traffic through the strait will have severe economic and geopolitical consequences for Iran, Mr. Shabani said. Still, he said, Iran feels it can withstand the pressure longer than Mr. Trump.沙巴尼表示，伊朗封锁海峡海上交通的决定将给伊朗带来严重的经济和地缘政治后果。但他同时指出，伊朗认为自己能比特朗普更久地承受压力。Some Iranian officials remain deeply concerned they could come under attack even amid talks, or that Mr. Trump could return to full-fledged war, said Sasan Karimi, a vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government, and political scientist at the University of Tehran.伊朗前政府战略事务副总裁、德黑兰大学政治学家萨桑·卡里米表示，一些伊朗官员仍深感担忧，认为即使在谈判期间，他们也可能遭到袭击，或者特朗普可能会重启全面战争。“Negotiators do not even know whether they could be attacked or not when they are in the air,” he said.他说：“谈判代表们甚至不知道自己在飞机上时是否会遭到袭击。”“They don’t want to fall into a trap, and they don’t want to have pressurized negotiations, whether that is by limiting the time or by setting preconditions,” Mr. Karimi added. “The Iranians, in those circumstances, would prefer war.”卡里米还说："他们不想落入陷阱，也不想在谈判中承受压力，无论是时间限制还是设置前提条件。在这种情况下，伊朗人宁愿选择战争。"Farnaz Fassihi和Sanam Mahoozi对本文有报道贡献。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site