DAMIEN CAVE2026年4月21日上个月，在湄公河三角洲，一艘销售柴油的浮动加油站。由于伊朗战争，越南深受燃料成本上涨的冲击。 Linh Pham for The New York TimesWhen the war in Iran started on Feb. 28, Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.2月28日伊朗战争爆发后，随着全球很大一部分石油和天然气供应中断，亚洲已经预计会出现严重但逐步显现的影响。然而，这场冲突给该地区带来的经济和社会冲击的猛烈程度和速度都远超官员和专家的预期。Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic.亚太地区多国正遭遇突如其来的剧烈冲击，难以应对。有人将这场危机的破坏程度和波及范围与新冠疫情相提并论。Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.即便很快达成和平协议，这个数十年来驱动全球经济增长的勤劳地区未来数月仍将面临航班取消、食品价格飙升、工厂停工、货运延误，以及货架空空如也的局面——那些商品曾被视为在全球各地都可以随处轻易获得：塑料袋、方便面、疫苗、注射器、口红、微芯片和运动服。Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.多位官员和专家一致认为，如果战争对中东商业航运的扼制再持续哪怕几周，且不确定性持续存在，物资短缺可能会导致多个国家爆发动荡，继而陷入经济衰退。Countless businesses are verging on insolvency. Governments are taking on enormous debt to slow inflation. By year’s end, in the most dire projections by the United Nations and others, millions across Asia could be pushed into poverty.无数企业濒临破产。各国政府正背负高额债务以抑制通胀。根据联合国等机构最悲观的预测，到今年年底，亚洲可能有数以百万计人陷入贫困。“The impacts are so rapid and deep,” said Phillip Cornell, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center who is based in Sri Lanka. “Just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large.”大西洋理事会全球能源中心驻斯里兰卡高级研究员菲利普·康奈尔表示："影响来得如此迅猛且深入。单从规模来看，这确实非常、非常、非常巨大。"Resource scarcity tends to unleash dark forces in human psychology and capitalism. As the International Monetary Fund has noted, the world economy is slowing nearly everywhere because roughly a fifth of the world’s fossil fuels have been held back from the global market since the war started. Even if the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes tomorrow, it could take years for oil and gas output and shipping to reach fat prewar levels.资源稀缺往往会释放出人类心理和资本主义中的阴暗面。正如国际货币基金组织所指出，全球经济几乎所有地区都在放缓，因为自战争爆发以来，全球约五分之一的化石燃料被排除在全球市场之外。即便霍尔木兹海峡明天就恢复稳定，油气产量和航运也可能需要数年时间才能恢复到战前的充裕水平。本月德黑兰的一幅壁画展现了伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的掌控决心。The Asia-Pacific has been the war’s first and worst zone of impact outside the Middle East because:亚太地区之所以成为中东以外受战争冲击最早且最严重的地区，是因为：1) the Asia-Pacific relies more heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports than almost anywhere else in the world;1）亚太地区对中东能源进口的依赖程度几乎高于世界上任何其他地区；2) the massive regional economy is deeply integrated, with supply chains crisscrossing borders in ways that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels;2）这个庞大的区域经济体高度一体化，供应链跨越国界，且在很大程度上依赖化石燃料；3) even before the war started in February, Asia’s energy capacity was falling short of demand. The backlog for energy generation turbines now affecting global data-center growth started with surging power demands from Southeast Asia’s industrial hubs.3）早在2月战争爆发前，亚洲的能源产能就已无法满足需求。目前影响全球数据中心建设的发电涡轮机订单积压问题，正是始于东南亚工业中心激增的电力需求。Wealthier countries, including China, face less immediate risk, with bigger fuel reserves and budgets. But comfort is neither permanent nor widespread. The rest of Asia, excluding China, is responsible for as much of the global economy as the United States or Europe. And many countries in that group have been struggling more than is publicly known.包括中国在内的较富裕国家拥有更多的燃料储备和财政预算，面临的即时风险较小。但这种安稳既非永久，也不普遍。除中国外的亚洲其他地区在全球经济中的占比与美国或欧洲相当。而该地区许多国家的困境远比外界所知更为严峻。In interviews, farmers in Vietnam, laborers in India, innkeepers in Sri Lanka, drivers in the Philippines, and executives in Hong Kong and Singapore all sounded more worried than many of the region’s politicians, who are seeking to project a stoic calm that often understates the scramble occurring offscreen.在采访中，越南的农民、印度的工人、斯里兰卡的旅馆老板、菲律宾的司机，以及香港和新加坡的企业高管都比该地区许多政界人士表现得更为担忧。那些政界人士试图摆出泰然自若的姿态，却往往低估了幕后正在发生的混乱。由于电费飙升，加之农民面临燃料和化肥价格上涨的困境，越南的大米加工厂已放缓了生产。Transportation, manufacturing and upward mobility — three pillars of stability in Asia — are all confronting powerful shock waves.交通、制造业和社会向上流动性是三大亚洲稳定的三大支柱，如今都正遭遇强烈的冲击波。A Sprawling Transportation Crisis蔓延的交通危机The United States and Israel started the war in Iran on Feb. 28. Within hours, trucks, ships and planes stopped operating in Asia, a region defined by near-constant motion across land, sky and sea.2月28日，美国和以色列发动了对伊朗的战争。数小时内，在亚洲，卡车、轮船和飞机纷纷停摆，而这个地区向来以陆、海、空三路近乎不间断的流动为特征。Air travel, the strongest example of Asia’s transportation reversal, veered toward chaos.航空业是亚洲交通变化最鲜明的例子，如今已陷入近乎混乱的状态。In March, there were more than 92,000 flights canceled worldwide, doubling the prewar rate of cancellation, with the largest spike in eliminated flights linked to the Asia-Pacific.3月，全球取消航班超过9.2万架次，是战前取消率的两倍，其中亚太地区的航班取消增幅最为显著。Carriers flying through the Middle East, where 24 million migrant workers from South and Southeast Asia are employed, suspended trips to Dubai and other Gulf hubs right away. With jet fuel nearly doubling in price and with its availability threatened, airlines are slashing many more routes indefinitely.中东地区雇佣了来自南亚和东南亚的2400万移民工人，途经该地区的航空公司立即暂停了飞往迪拜和其他海湾枢纽的航班。随着航空燃油价格几乎翻倍且供应受到威胁，航空公司正无限期削减更多航线。Qantas, Air New Zealand, Lion Air of Indonesia, VietJet, AirAsia, Air India and Cathay Pacific are just a few of the companies cutting service. Batik Air of Malaysia has gone further than most, cutting flights by 35 percent this month to avoid insolvency.澳洲航空、新西兰航空、印尼狮航、越捷航空、亚洲航空、印度航空和国泰航空只是削减服务的众多公司中的几家。马来西亚峇迪航空的举措更为激进，本月已削减35%的航班以避免破产。去年吉隆坡国际机场的飞机。马来西亚峇迪航空本月将国内航线运力削减了35%，以避免破产。Shukor Yusof from Endau Analytics, an airline advisory firm in Singapore, estimates that air traffic for Asia and the Pacific has already dropped by a third. Smaller airlines are losing millions of dollars weekly. Larger, better capitalized airlines in the region may survive, but discount players that buy more fuel on spot markets will likely shrivel, merge or die.新加坡航空咨询公司Endau Analytics的舒库尔·优素福估计，亚太地区的航空客流量已下降三分之一。小型航空公司每周亏损数以百万计美元。该地区资本更雄厚的大型航空公司或许能幸存下来，但那些更多依赖现货市场购买燃油的廉价航空公司，很可能会萎缩、合并或倒闭。“Even if the cease-fire holds, because of the chokehold that’s been triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the flow of fuel is going to just be a trickle,” Mr. Yusof said.优素福表示：“即便停火协议得以维持，由于霍尔木兹海峡关闭引发的供应瓶颈，燃油供应仍将只是涓涓细流。”“It’s massive in the scale of things, unprecedented in the industry,” he added. “Even with Covid, we weren’t gripped to our seats like we are now.”“这件事的规模之大，在行业内前所未有，”他还说。“即便是新冠疫情期间，我们也没有像现在这样坐立不安。”Airports and airlines are not the only victims. Remote areas, from outback towns in Australia to the craggy foothills of the Himalayas, are slipping further into isolation. Travel agencies, hotels and restaurants are also grappling with a sudden collapse in business.机场和航空公司并非仅有的受害者。从澳大利亚内陆城镇到喜马拉雅山脉崎岖的山麓，偏远地区正进一步陷入孤立。旅行社、酒店和餐馆也在应对业务的突然崩溃。“Airline prices have tripled,” said Samath Gammampila, 39, director of Unu Boutique Hotel in Sri Lanka’s southern beach town of Ahangama. “We’re seeing about an 80 to 90 percent drop in occupancy.”斯里兰卡南部海滨小镇阿汉加马的Unu精品酒店总监、39岁的萨马特·甘马姆皮拉说：“机票价格涨了两倍。我们的入住率下降了80%到90%。”斯里兰卡米里萨海滩上的游客。南亚部分酒店的入住率大幅下滑。Interviews and official forecasts suggest the rest of the year could be as bad or worse in many countries.采访和官方预测显示，对许多国家而言，今年剩下的时间可能同样糟糕，甚至更糟。Halted Production生产全面停滞Many of Asia’s most successful export industries require enormous amounts of energy and other ingredients from the Middle East. Seven weeks in, stockpiles are running out.亚洲许多最成功的出口产业都需要消耗大量能源和来自中东的其他原材料。战争爆发七周后，库存已濒临耗尽。Cutbacks in manufacturing are now multiplying, revealing vulnerabilities rarely considered.制造业的减产正呈指数级蔓延，暴露出此前鲜少被考虑到的脆弱性。Copper and nickel production, for example, rely on high heat from natural gas and also sulfur, a fossil fuel byproduct. Both are in short supply, forcing several Indonesian nickel processors to reduce output by at least 10 percent.例如，铜和镍的生产依赖天然气提供的高温，以及化石燃料的副产品硫磺。两者目前都供应短缺，迫使印尼多家镍加工商将产量至少削减10%。位于印度尼西亚苏拉威西省东南部北科纳韦的一处镍矿开采点。镍的生产需要使用天然气进行高温加工，同时也需要硫磺。由于伊朗周边的封锁，这两种资源都供应短缺。Polyester and nylon are also derived from petroleum. In the sewing hubs of Bangladesh, Gazipur and Ashulia, where clothes are made for Wal-Mart, Zara and Uniqlo, severe disruptions to production and shipment schedules are common and on track to worsen.聚酯和尼龙也源自石油。在孟加拉国为沃尔玛、Zara和优衣库生产服装的加济布尔和阿舒利亚缝纫中心，生产和运输计划的严重中断已成为常态，且情况还在恶化。“The strain we are under now — managing it will become very tough if there is no continuity in gas or fuel supply,” said Abdullah Hil Nakib, deputy managing director of TEAM, a Bangladeshi garment factory group. “We are seeing that the prices of our raw materials are also rising. Today the price of thread has almost doubled.”孟加拉国服装制造集团TEAM的副总经理阿卜杜拉·希尔·纳基布说：“我们目前承受着压力——如果天然气或燃料供应无法持续，管理起来将变得非常困难。我们还看到原材料价格也在上涨。如今线的价格几乎翻了一番。”孟加拉国达卡郊区一家服装厂的工人。该国各缝纫中心普遍出现了生产和发货计划的严重中断。Move on to higher-end manufacturing, and to helium, a gas byproduct used for semiconductors, and stress levels increase. Qatar, which normally produces nearly one third of the world’s supply, had to halt production on March 2 after an attack on its gas plants by Iran.再看高端制造业，以及用于半导体生产的氦气，压力更是陡增。卡塔尔通常供应全球近三分之一的氦气，但在3月2日其天然气厂遭到伊朗袭击后，不得不暂停生产。Prices have soared, and some Asian chipmakers are slowing production and reconsidering sources of supply.氦气价格飙升，部分亚洲芯片制造商已开始放缓生产，并重新考虑供应来源。Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest producer of high-end chips, had previously accepted helium from Qatar and the United States. On Thursday, the company said on an earnings call that it had enough on hand to avoid a near-term impact.全球最大的高端芯片生产商台积电此前一直从卡塔尔和美国采购氦气。该公司在周四的财报电话会议上表示，目前有足够的库存，短期内不会受到影响。But a prolonged shortage could force the company and other chip makers to accept supply from other locations, like Russia, the world’s third-largest producer of helium. Or it could force production cuts that would roll through everything from electronics to cars.但长期短缺可能会迫使该公司和其他芯片制造商接受来自其他地区的供应，比如全球第三大氦气生产国俄罗斯。或者，这可能会迫使企业减产，其影响将波及从电子产品到汽车的所有行业。芯片制造商正面临氦气突然短缺的困境。目前，高端芯片最大供应商台积电表示，其库存充足，足以避免减产。One bottleneck begets another; that’s the pattern. Without enough petrochemicals to make plastic packaging, fewer Korean beauty products are heading to stores. A lack of fertilizer is threatening rice crops in Vietnam. Cattle farmers in steak-crazy Australia are even warning of a red meat shortage because of idled slaughterhouses and truckers.一个瓶颈引发另一个瓶颈，这就是当前的模式。没有足够的石化产品生产塑料包装，运往商店的韩国美妆产品就会减少。化肥短缺正威胁着越南的水稻作物。在痴迷牛排的澳大利亚，养牛户警告称，由于屠宰场停工和卡车司机短缺，红肉将出现供应不足。Human Suffering民生的苦难Before the war, the United Nations projected that most of the next decade’s growth in middle-class consumers would be found in Asia.战争爆发前，联合国曾预测，未来十年全球中产阶级消费者的增长大部分将出现在亚洲。Last week, a new U.N. report estimated that 8.8 million people in Asia and the Pacific are at risk of falling into poverty because of the war, depending on how long hostilities last. Most of those, about five million, would be in Iran. But in a region where most employment is informal, without a robust safety net, the conflict’s effects are starting to compound.上周，联合国一份新报告估计，根据战事持续时间的不同，亚太地区将有880万人面临陷入贫困的风险。其中约500万人在伊朗。但在一个大多数就业为非正规就业、缺乏健全社会保障网的地区，冲突的影响正开始叠加。In an interview, Kanni Wignaraja, a U.N. assistant secretary‑general and U.N.D.P. regional director for Asia and the Pacific, said “the scale and the speed of transmission to Asia and the Pacific has been much bigger than initially anticipated.”联合国助理秘书长兼开发计划署亚太区域主任坎尼·维格纳拉贾在接受采访时表示：“这场危机向亚太地区传导的规模和速度远超最初的预期。”Poverty’s spread, she noted, threatens to be fused with other problems: vital medicines and vaccines failing to reach vulnerable populations; schools and universities unable to gather students; and increased pollution from the return to coal burning for electricity.她指出，贫困的蔓延可能会与其他问题交织在一起：救命药品和疫苗无法送达弱势群体；学校和大学无法正常开学；以及为发电重新使用煤炭，导致污染加剧。In India, where entire industrial clusters have been shut down for weeks by fuel shortages, workers are reversing urbanization, melting back to rural villages to thresh wheat. The cost of acetaminophen and some antibiotics in India has already gone up.在印度，由于燃料短缺，整个工业集群已停工数周，工人们正逆城市化趋势而行，返回农村村庄收割小麦。印度的对乙酰氨基酚和部分抗生素价格已经上涨。In Manila, Wednesday is considered a special day of Catholic devotion that usually attracts a throng of devotees and shoppers in the Philippine capital’s Baclaran district. After attending church, many scout for bargains at the nearby flea market.在马尼拉，周三是天主教的重要祈祷日，通常会吸引大批信徒和购物者前往菲律宾首都的巴克拉兰区。做完礼拜后，许多人会在附近的跳蚤市场淘便宜货。But the district, far quieter since the war started, seemed closer to paralysis this week. Jeepney or minibus drivers gathered in groups, away from the wheel, for a three-day work strike to protest runaway gas and diesel prices.但自战争爆发以来，这个地区变得异常安静，本周更是近乎瘫痪。小公共汽车司机们聚集在一起，离开驾驶座，举行为期三天的罢工，抗议飙升的汽油和柴油价格。随着4月份油价上涨，马尼拉一家加油站用贴纸修改了价格牌。Yunos Lilingco, 42, a widow and mother of three, said she initially believed the U.S.-Iran war wouldn’t affect her. She sells clothes she gets from a factory. The war seemed a world away.42岁的尤诺斯·利林科是一位寡妇，育有三个孩子。她说，她最初认为美伊战争不会影响到自己。她靠卖从工厂进货的衣服为生。战争似乎远在天边。But when gas prices went up, her costs rose, too. Her customer base has nearly disappeared. She used to make nearly $40 a day, now she makes less than $10.但当汽油价格上涨后，她的成本也随之上升。她的客户群几乎消失殆尽。她过去每天能赚近40美元，现在还不到10美元。“People don’t move around too much nowadays, because of high gas prices,” she said. “So there are fewer people to sell my clothes to.”“现在人们不怎么出门了，因为油价太高，”她说。“所以买我衣服的人也少了。”The U.N.’s report predicted that the war would cost Asia and the Pacific between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to between 0.3 and 0.8 percent of regional gross domestic product.联合国的报告预测，这场战争将给亚太地区造成970亿至2990亿美元的损失，相当于该地区国内生产总值的0.3%至0.8%。At street level, suffering often starts with higher food prices and reduced employment.在普通民众层面，苦难往往始于食品价格上涨和就业减少。“You’re losing income, and at the same time you’re paying more,” said Ms. Wignaraja, the U.N. official.“你失去了收入，同时却要支付更多的费用，”联合国官员维格纳拉贾说。3月，在菲律宾邦格特省阿托克镇，一名农民俯瞰着他决定不收割的卷心菜田，他表示，与其因运输燃料成本上涨亏本出售，他宁愿让这些菜烂掉。In the northern region of the Philippines, which supplies most of the country’s highland vegetables, like cabbage and broccoli, scarcity is killing abundance. Crops ready to be harvested last week are rotting in fertile fields, with farmers unable to afford the costs of transporting them to market.菲律宾北部地区是该国大部分卷心菜、西兰花等高原蔬菜的供应地，在那里，物资短缺正在扼杀丰收。上周本该收获的作物正在肥沃的田地里腐烂，因为农民负担不起将它们运往市场的运输成本。The war’s damage, so quick and deep across the Asia-Pacific, will not be easy to contain. Even if the United States and Iran reach a lasting peace, the forces of scarcity and inflation have gained momentum and are on the move.这场战争对亚太地区造成的破坏如此迅速且深入，将难以遏制。即便美国和伊朗达成持久和平，稀缺和通胀的力量也已获得势头，正在蔓延开来。“You’ve seen tsunamis — they go across the ocean very, very fast,” said Mr. Cornell from the Atlantic Council. “I find it breathtaking to see the degree to which American policymakers think that they are insulated.”“你见过海啸吧——它们会以极快的速度席卷整个海洋，”大西洋理事会的康奈尔说。“看到美国的政策制定者们认为自己能够置身事外，我感到非常震惊。”Jason Gutierrez自马尼拉、Hari Kumar, Pragati K.B.和Alex Travelli自新德里、Saif Hasnat自孟加拉国达卡、Pamodi Waravita自斯里兰卡阿汉加马、Meaghan Tobin自台湾台北、River Akira Davis自东京对本文有报道贡献。Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社，报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。