Trump’s show of force has triggered the deepest global disruption in decadesA vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman, on April 12. The waterway, once a reliable artery of global commerce, is now a contested chokepoint, with lasting implications for how energy moves and power is exercised. Photo: ReutersBrahma ChellaneyNikkei AsiaThe U.S.-Israeli war on Iran lasted just 40 days. Its consequences will last years.What ended with a fragile ceasefire on April 8 has already become the most economically disruptive war in half a century. Not since the oil shocks of the 1970s has a conflict simultaneously ruptured energy supply, disrupted trade arteries, strained food systems and tightened global financial conditions.What distinguishes this war is not just its scale, but its breadth: It hit multiple pillars of the global economy at once, and in ways that cannot be quickly reversed.U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office promising to end “stupid wars.” Instead, he delivered one of the most strategically self-defeating conflicts. While U.S. and Israeli forces degraded Iran’s military capabilities, the war revealed a harsher truth: Overwhelming force cannot compel favorable outcomes against a resilient adversary capable of imposing systemic costs by widening the battlefield beyond its borders. The result was power without resolution.Like the 1956 Suez Crisis that exposed the limits of British power, this war has prompted a growing question: Did Trump just engineer America’s own Suez moment?What began on Feb. 28 as a military campaign quickly metastasized into the largest energy-supply disruption in history. Energy infrastructure across Iran and the Gulf was damaged or disabled. Supply routes fractured. And most critically, the Strait of Hormuz became effectively unusable.Unlike past crises, there was no workaround. Oil and gas output fell sharply. Shipping insurance premiums in the Gulf surged more than fourfold.Even after the ceasefire, a permanent risk premium has been embedded into global energy markets, as investors and shippers now assume that instability in the Gulf is no longer episodic but enduring.In effect, Trump became the first leader in modern history to trigger a global energy crisis through direct military action.For Asia, particularly India, Japan and South Korea, the shock has been severe. Along with China, these economies depended heavily on Gulf energy flows. But while Beijing has accelerated its pivot toward overland pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, Tokyo, Seoul and New Delhi remain structurally exposed, with no viable alternative to vulnerable sea lanes.Because energy underpins every stage of modern production, the global shock does not stop at fuel. It is already cascading into the world food system.Modern agriculture runs on energy. Natural gas is essential for fertilizer production; oil powers irrigation, transport and mechanization. When energy systems fracture, food systems follow.The Gulf is a key supplier of fertilizers such as urea and ammonia. Disruptions sent prices soaring, just as the Northern Hemisphere entered its spring planting season. Reduced fertilizer use is now locked in for the 2026 harvest.The consequences are unfolding in stages: first an input shock, then a production shortfall, and finally a consumption crisis marked by rising food prices.By next year, analysts expect significant increases in the cost of grains, vegetable oils and meat. Corn — central to global feed systems — is particularly vulnerable, raising the prospect of a “protein shock.”A sign displayed at a Thai gas station announces that diesel fuel has run out. Photo: APGovernment responses are compounding the problem. High oil prices have made biofuels more attractive, prompting countries to divert more crops into fuel production. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle: Higher energy prices tighten food supply, pushing prices even higher.The war also exposed a rarely acknowledged vulnerability: the Gulf’s heavy dependence on desalination.After a desalination facility on Iran’s Qeshm island was struck, reprisal attacks on desalination plants in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE triggered a cascading water-energy crisis. Desalination facilities are highly energy-intensive and indispensable. Damaging them forced governments to divert enormous resources simply to maintain potable water supplies.In the world’s most freshwater-scarce region, water itself became a weapon of war.While the war-triggered crisis is global, its burden is not.In advanced economies, the crisis manifests as inflation and industrial strain. Households face higher costs, while central banks delay rate cuts. But these countries retain buffers.The Global South does not. Many developing economies rely heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Gulf. Rising prices have ballooned import bills, weakened currencies and increased debt burdens, especially where liabilities are dollar-denominated.Capital is flowing out of these economies into perceived safe havens, tightening financial conditions further. The result is a vicious cycle: higher costs, weaker currencies and shrinking fiscal space. For some countries, the risks are existential.Compounding the crisis is a sharp drop in remittances. Millions of workers from developing countries are employed in Gulf economies. War-related disruptions have reduced remittance flows significantly. At the household level, families are losing financial lifelines just as food and energy prices surge. At the national level, governments are losing critical foreign exchange, undermining their ability to stabilize economies.Globally, what makes this moment especially dangerous is not any single disruption, but their convergence.Energy systems are fractured. Food systems are under strain. Financial flows are shifting. Trade routes are costlier and more uncertain. The Strait of Hormuz, once a reliable artery of global commerce, is now a contested chokepoint, with lasting implications for how energy moves and power is exercised.The era of cheap energy, secure transit and frictionless globalization is giving way to something more fragmented, more politicized and more volatile. Even if the ceasefire holds, this will not quickly reverse.Damaged energy infrastructure will take several years to rebuild. Confidence in Gulf transit has been eroded to the extent that the costs — in terms of prices, insurance and strategy — are now locked into the system.The irony is stark. A war intended to assert American supremacy has instead imposed global costs that the world will continue to bear even after Trump leaves office.Global growth will likely remain constrained. Energy markets will stay tight. Food systems will absorb delayed shocks. And U.S. credibility will continue to erode.The war’s true legacy is not the 40 days it lasted but the systemic crisis it set in motion. And that bill is only beginning to come due.Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the independent New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research and fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including “Water: Asia’s New Battleground,” which won the Bernard Schwartz Book Award.