EUR/USD – Smart Money Positioning for a Continuation Move?EUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyAt the moment, I’m monitoring EUR/USD in a very interesting phase from a structural perspective. After weeks of bearish pressure, the market has shown a clear shift in momentum, breaking the descending structure and starting to build a more solid bullish base. However, price is now trading in a delicate zone, between 1.1780 and 1.19, where the market has previously reacted decisively. This means that, while I maintain a bullish bias, this is not the ideal area to enter the market aggressively. From an institutional positioning standpoint, the latest COT data suggests a transitional phase. The euro is not yet in a clearly defined bullish accumulation phase, but it is moving toward that context. We are seeing an increase in both long and short positions, which is typically a sign of rebalancing. At the same time, the US dollar still holds some relative strength, but with signs of weakening momentum. This combination often precedes more directional moves in the medium term, but built gradually rather than explosively. A key element reinforcing my view is retail sentiment. Currently, around 73% of traders are positioned short on EUR/USD. From a contrarian perspective, this is highly relevant: when the majority of the market is positioned against the move, it often ends up fueling it. In other words, any upside could be accelerated by forced closures of these short positions. Adding to the picture is seasonality. April has historically been a positive month for EUR/USD, and this strength often extends into the early part of May. While not a standalone factor, it provides an additional layer of confluence supporting a bullish scenario. The primary scenario I’m considering is a pullback toward the 1.1650–1.17 area, followed by a continuation of the bullish move with progressive targets at 1.19 and then 1.2050–1.21. Alternatively, a direct breakout above 1.19 could open the door for further upside, but in that case, I would wait for a retest before considering entries. On the downside, a move below 1.1550 would begin to compromise the recently established bullish structure, putting the entire scenario back into question.