The Economist runs a midterm election forecast for the House and Senate:Democrats have a 95% chance of flipping the HouseDemocrats also have a 46% probability of taking the Senate“Although individual House races are thinly polled and frequently deliver upsets, district-specific surprises usually cancel out across hundreds of concurrent elections.”“If a party wins far more seats than expected, that is usually because it wins more votes than expected nationwide. And in modern times the national popular vote for the House has generally landed close to estimates based on ‘generic-ballot’ surveys, which ask respondents which party they plan to support in Congress. Among decided voters, Democrats now lead these polls by around 53% to 47%.”