ZN Short — $ZNM26 breaking down through 111.30 support with rate10-Year T-Note FuturesCBOT:ZN1!ivvixSetup: On the 4h, ZN has been rangebound between roughly 110.75 and 112.00 since late March, but the current price action sits in the lower half of that range after failing to hold the Apr 17 spike high near 111.80. The 1h shows a clean staircase breakdown from 111.65 to current levels — lower highs and lower closes over the past two sessions with expanding red volume on the drops. The most recent bars (Apr 21 07:00–10:00) show a high-volume flush through the 111.30 shelf with no meaningful bid recovery, price settling just above the 111.25 area which is the next visible congestion. Flow: The rates complex is broadly offered — ZT, ZF, ZN, and ZB all showing coordinated selling pressure consistent with 10Y cash yields up 4bps on the session. DXY firming adds to the headwind for bonds. Waller in roughly 130 minutes is a known risk, but the tape is already leaning hawkish in positioning, and the pre-speech drift is consistent with shorts building into the event rather than covering. Plan: Stop is placed above the Apr 21 breakdown shelf and the cluster of 111.45–111.50 resistance that capped overnight — reclaiming that zone would invalidate the breakdown thesis. Target is the 110.875 area, which corresponds to the Apr 12–13 consolidation floor and aligns with the broader range mid-support on the 4h. R/R is approximately 1.9:1. A Waller comment more dovish than expected could squeeze the position; size accordingly ahead of the event. 📍 Entry: 111.28125 🛑 Stop: 111.5 🎯 Target: 110.875 ⚖️ R:R: 1.86