Toronto FC v Philadelphia Union: Carnell's side on the up after defensive improvements

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Bradley Carnell believes his Philadelphia Union team are heading in the right direction after going back-to-back MLS games without defeat following a six-match winless run. After finishing top of the Eastern Conference in 2025 before being eliminated in the playoff semi-finals by New York City FC, the Union struggled to recapture that form this year. Philadelphia suffered six consecutive defeats, five of which were by a one-goal margin, before finally getting their first win on the board against CF Montreal earlier this month. They followed that up with a goalless draw against D.C. United last time out, though the Union may have felt they could have earned all three points, given they registered an expected goals (xG) total of 1.27 from their 17 shots to their opponents' 0.66 from their six attempts.But when previewing this week's trip to Toronto FC, Carnell was keen to highlight the importance of his defence, which is helping their upturn in results. "You look at the faces around here, and everyone feels as though it's a step in the right direction," Carnell said. "It felt right, and it is slowly starting to begin to look right, too. "Defensively, in order to put yourself in a position to win games, you mustn't concede, and we are starting to do that now. We're making sure that we can build on that now. "Over the last few weeks, that has been a good talking point for us. We haven't given too much away, and we're among the best defensive sides in terms of shots against us."We feel we're taking steps forward as a group, and this is just a part of the joys and struggles of being a coach. Now we're two unbeaten and trying to gain momentum off of that."But Philadelphia's defensive resolve will be put to the test against a Toronto side that are sixth in the Eastern Conference after taking 12 points from their first eight matches. After finishing 12th in the division in 2025, Toronto have enjoyed a strong start this time around, going unbeaten in their last six matches and winning three of those. However, Robin Fraser's side have been forced to share the spoils in their last two MLS outings, the latest of which they drew 3-3 with Austin FC in an entertaining clash. Dating back to last August, Toronto have gone behind in 12 regular-season MLS matches, including facing a 3-2 deficit against Austin on Saturday before coming back to draw,The Reds have lost only three of those 12 matches, coming back to earn two wins and seven draws, and Fraser continued to be impressed by his team's resilience. "This is a really good group of guys, and they just keep fighting. They always, always keep fighting," Fraser said."The range of emotions again — down a goal, have a lead, give up the lead, down a goal again, and then fight back — certainly speaks volumes of the character. "Obviously, there are going to be ebbs and flows, and we have to be comfortable in the moments [in games] that we can't get to the things that we normally can."And in those moments, we have to stay together and just make sure that teams don’t get between us and behind us."PLAYERS TO WATCHToronto – Josh SargentAfter scoring his first MLS goal, Sargent will be hoping his career in the competition will now begin to take flight, and he played an important role in Toronto's last MLS outing.The American finished with team-high totals for shots (four), touches in the opposition box (eight), aerial duels won (seven), and duels won (nine).Philadelphia Union – Milan IloskiIloski has been a positive for Philadelphia in what has been an underwhelming season so far, leading the way with two goal involvements from eight MLS outings this term.He has also created more chances (13) than any other player in the Union's squad in 2026, and his influence will be needed against Fraser's side.MATCH PREDICTION: DRAWPhiladelphia's win at BMO Field last May was just their fourth win in 18 all-time visits to Toronto in all competitions (D4 L10). The Union have never won two straight away matches against Toronto, last avoiding defeat in consecutive visits during a three-match run from 2012-14.However, the Union's only win this regular season came in their first visit to Canada, a 2-1 victory at CF Montreal on April 11. They have won three of their last four matches in Canada (L1) after losing five in a row from April 2022 to July 2024.Toronto, meanwhile, extended their unbeaten home run to 12 straight (W4 D8) after their draw with Austin despite conceding in each of the last 10 games in that span. The 10 straight matches unbeaten at home despite conceding is the second-longest such run in MLS history (Orlando City – 13 straight in 2015-16).OPTA WIN PROBABILITYToronto – 36.1%Draw – 26.2%Philadelphia – 37.7%