S&P 500 to 8,300 - Shorts sellers continue to help longsS&P 500SP:SPXwithout_worriesSYMBOL: SP:SPX | DIRECTION: LONG | TIMEFRAME: 23-Day Published: April 2026 Type: Investment | Timeframe: 12–18 months | Return: ~60% from current levels The headlines say recession. The algorithms are selling. The crowd, as always, is extrapolating the last three hours into infinity and presenting it as insight. Meanwhile, the chart is doing something the crowd is not.... watching: it is printing one of the most historically reliable signals in all of technical analysis, on a 23-day timeframe (not so important) at major support, inside a bull market that has been intact since 2009, which deserves attention. On the above 23-day chart the S&P 500 has corrected sharply from its all-time high. A number of compelling reasons now exist for a resumption of the primary trend and a move to 8,300. They include: 1) The 23-day hammer candle. Annotated clearly on the chart (see below). The lower wick of this candle is the story, sellers drove price aggressively lower over the duration of the candle, and buyers absorbed every single one of those sell orders and closed price back at the highs. That is not weakness. That is absorption. On a 23-day timeframe a hammer of this size does not print without institutional intent. The market is telling you, loudly, where it wants to go next. Meanwhile retail retail read the News a re-tweet what we already know. 2) The SMA support band holds. The green moving average channel has guided this bull market since 2020. Price has tested it multiple times. Each test has been a buying opportunity. Look left. The band is not broken. Price has wicked below it and closed back above it, a textbook false break, the kind that shakes out weak hands and resets positioning before the next move higher. 3) Past resistance confirms as support. The longer-term chart tells the fuller story. The ascending parallel channel in place since 1997, through dot-com, through the financial crisis, through COVID.. they all show a consistent and reliable pattern: former resistance becomes support on the next cycle. The level at which the S&P 500 is currently finding buyers was resistance in a prior cycle. Classic. Textbook. The most powerful kind of support there is, because it is built on memory. The next resistance is around 8300. 4) The Fibonacci 1.618 extension targets 8,300. Measured from the lows of 2025 to the all-time high and extended forward, the 1.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 8,300. This level also aligns with the long-term horizontal resistance visible on the 23-day chart, a level defined by the structure of the channel, not by the Fibonacci alone. Two independent methods pointing at the same destination is not coincidence. It is confluence. It is the target. Target 8,300... the Fibonacci 1.618 extension coinciding with long-term channel resistance. This is not a number pulled from optimism. It is the measured move, defined by the structure of a chart that has been intact for nearly three decades. Expect turbulence along the way. The news cycle will ensure the journey is uncomfortable. Discomfort is the entry fee for returns. What cancels the thesis? A confirmed 23-day close below the SMA support band, the lower green line, that invalidates the setup. That would indicate structural damage to the bull trend that a single hammer candle cannot repair. Until that close prints, the primary trend is up, the support is holding, and the signal is bullish. But we already know where this market is going, don't we? . Hard to believe? What's really unbelievable is you're not paying for this information! The crowd Sentiment this week is measurable without a single indicator, simply read the comments section of any financial post published in the last fortnight. The certainty with which people are calling the end of the bull market is remarkable, and historically instructive. Capitulation-grade pessimism at major support, following a hammer candle on a macro timeframe, is not a reason to sell. It is the reason this trade exists. Is it possible price falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Good luck. Ww ======================================================= Disclaimer: This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Investing in equities involves substantial risk. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 23 day chart