ETH/USD Post-Spike Fade at $2,463 Resistance | BTC Rejects $78KEthereum / US DollarCOINBASE:ETHUSDAlMooreTradesOverview Ethereum surged over 7% intraday on U.S.-Iran peace talk headlines and a CoinDesk report confirming ETH biggest on-chain quarter ever. The move pushed price above the 4H upper Bollinger Band and into the 2,463 pivot resistance zone - a level that has capped rallies twice in the past 30 days. BTC attempted to break 78,000 and failed, now fading. With macro still in RISK-OFF territory (Gold/Copper at 79th percentile), this spike looks like a sentiment overreaction into resistance. Key Levels Resistance: 2,463 - pivot R2, prior rejection zone Resistance: 2,615 - daily resistance, breakout target if 2,463 gives way Support: 2,348 - 4H SMA(20), mean reversion buyers step in here Support: 2,280 - 4H SMA(50), structural floor VWAP: 2,380 - price extended 65 points above VWAP, extreme extension Technical Setup RSI (4H): 69.94 - approaching overbought, rising from 58.27 last candle RSI (Daily): 65.9 - bullish but not yet overbought MACD (4H): bullish crossover, histogram +1.03 - early, momentum not confirmed Bollinger Bands (4H): price ABOVE upper band (2,403) - extended, mean reversion likely ADX (4H): 24.98 - moderate trend strength, not a runaway move Stochastic (4H): 69.59 / 57.68 - Neutral, K nearing overbought 4H candle: Strong bullish body (80%) but 15.3% upper wick - sellers appeared at highs Trade Idea Direction: Short (fade the spike) Entry zone: 2,440 to 2,463 Target 1: 2,380 (VWAP / upper BB mean reversion) +2.5% Target 2: 2,348 (4H SMA20) +3.8% Stop: 2,505 (above resistance zone) Risk/Reward: 2.6:1 to T1, 3.9:1 to T2 Risks BTC reclaims 78,000 on volume - would pull ETH to 2,520+, invalidating setup Iran ceasefire becomes a sustained macro narrative, extending crypto risk-on bid ETH on-chain momentum (busiest quarter ever) attracting fresh buyers into dips