88% of Traders Are Long on EURAUDEUR/AUDOANDA:EURAUDEdgeTradingJourneyEURAUD is currently offering one of the cleanest multi-factor setups on my watchlist, with strong alignment across sentiment, COT data, seasonality, and technical structure. Starting from retail positioning, the data shows that approximately 88% of traders are long on EURAUD. This is a clear contrarian signal in my framework. When positioning becomes this one-sided, I’m not interested in following the crowd, I’m looking for the move in the opposite direction. This immediately shifts my bias to bearish. From a COT perspective, the picture supports this view. The Euro is still net long, but I’m seeing a weakening structure, with shorts increasing significantly alongside longs. This typically signals distribution rather than continuation. On the other side, the Australian Dollar is no longer being aggressively sold. Positioning is stabilizing, which often precedes a rotation phase. This divergence between EUR and AUD strengthens my bearish outlook on the cross. Seasonality adds another layer of confluence. Historically, EUR tends to form a local top around this time of the year, with performance deteriorating into May. This timing aligns perfectly with the current market structure, suggesting that we may be entering the early phase of a downward leg. Technically, the chart confirms everything. The market remains in a clear downtrend, and the recent pullback has formed a lower high into a key supply zone. I’m also seeing a break of the corrective bullish structure, which is a strong signal that sellers are stepping back in control. My preferred scenario is a pullback into the 1.6550–1.6650 area, where I expect liquidity and potential rejection. Alternatively, I’m also monitoring continuation entries on lower timeframes if price confirms weakness below current levels.