Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.Jump to contentIndependentSwipe for next articleIndependent Bulletin homepageDownload our appAllNewsSportCultureLifestyleKate DevlinTuesday 14 April 2026 14:32 BSTWhat the Strait of Hormuz looked like before Iran war and after US blockadeThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the conflict involving Donald Trump and Iran risks triggering a global recession and an energy crisis of "unprecedented scale".The IMF has significantly cut its economic growth forecasts for the UK, predicting GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year, down from earlier projections.UK inflation is now expected to rise to an average of 3.2 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent next year, driven by higher energy, fuel and food costs.The IMF also forecasts that UK unemployment will increase to 5.6 per cent this year, up from 4.9 per cent last year.The global outlook has "abruptly darkened", with a severe scenario potentially reducing global growth by 1.3 percentage points by 2026, making a global recession a "close call".In fullTrump’s Iran war could trigger global recession, IMF warnsThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in