Market Recap: Long Liquidation or a Shift in Tide? $ES and $NQE-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Jun 2026)CME_MINI:NQM2026JP_MarketProfileApril 20, 2026 Market Review & Prep for Tomorrow After an explosive bull run last week, the market took a breather today, providing a masterclass in long liquidation and the importance of monitoring Market Generated Information (MGI) as it develops. The Morning: Bears Strike Early The session started with a defensive tone as the Globex session opened with a gap down below Friday’s low. While buyers managed to close that gap before the RTH open, the momentum proved fleeting. Both NQ and ES successfully took out their respective Overnight Highs right at the bell, but the follow-through was nonexistent. Price action turned choppy in B-period, and by the end of C-period, sellers made a decisive move, extending the break below the Initial Balance (IB) low. This move was significant for NQ, as it officially pulled the daily chart out of its upward trend and back into a Balance phase. The Midday Pivot: Tracking the Scores By the middle of the day, the bears were in total control of the intraday narrative. Our proprietary scoring system showed a dominant lead: NQ Score: 7-1 in favor of the bears. ES Score: 5-1 in favor of the bears. At this stage, both indices were carving out what appeared to be a “b” shape profile. In Market Profile terms, this structure often indicates long liquidation—where buyers from lower prices are taking profits—rather than aggressive new sellers entering the market to drive a new trend. The Afternoon: Bulls Claw Back The market found a floor during the H-period afternoon pullback. From there, the "rotational" nature of the market took over. K, L, and M periods saw prices churn, with M-period ending as an outside bar. As the afternoon progressed, the bears’ intraday dominance evaporated. They lost control of the open, saw their single prints filled, and lost the "one-time framing down" status. Most importantly, the Point of Control (POC) migrated higher in both indices. Final Intraday Scores: 🔹 NQ: 3-2 (Bears) 🔹 ES: 2-2 (Tie) Technical Landscape & Tomorrow's Outlook Despite the intraday volatility, the larger context remains relatively healthy for the bulls. Today’s action served as a "pause" to digest recent gains. NQ Daily: Now in a 2-day balance. Friday’s high acts as the Balance High, and today’s low is the Balance Low. ES Daily: Closed as an Inside Bar. While technically still "up" on the daily, it is coiling for a breakout. Structural Notes: ES is carrying a 10-wide POC, while NQ has an 8-wide POC. These levels will act as magnets or pivots in the coming sessions. The Game Plan for April 21st The bulls’ first objective tomorrow is to regain control of Value. Look for initiating buying early in the session to pull Value higher. 🔹 For NQ: Bulls need to clear Friday's high to break the 2-day balance to the upside. 🔹 For ES: Bulls must defend today's low; losing it puts the daily into balance. Taking out today's high would signal a breakout from the inside day. Even if the daily trend falters, remember that the Weekly Trend is still UP. The bulls have plenty of room to maneuver before the higher-timeframe structure is threatened. Closing Thoughts Today was a reminder that the market rarely moves in a straight line. By watching the "b" shape develop and recognizing the shift in scores during the afternoon, traders could avoid the trap of "shorting the hole" during a liquidation event. Let the Market Profile and the MGI guide your setups. Don't start with a bias; let the data guide you.