$MSTR — Multi-Layer Probabilistic SetupStrategy Inc Class ABATS:MSTRWavervanir_International_LLCMSTR — Multi-Layer Probabilistic Setup Strategy Inc at the most consequential technical level since the 2024 top, with a fully-stacked signal environment. Here's the synthesis: Macro layer: BTC ~$75K, exactly at MSTR's $75,527 average cost basis. Iran tensions flaring — diplomatic talks reportedly canceled today. Last week MSTR purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54B (third-largest single purchase ever), bringing holdings to 815,061 BTC. MSTR -2.5% pre-market on the disclosure. Catalyst layer: Q1 earnings + live webinar coming. Shareholder vote June 8 on semi-monthly dividend restructuring (designed to compress STRC yield and fund more BTC purchases). Analyst targets span $188-$385 (no consensus), midpoint ~$285. Technical layer: Weekly chart: 18-month descending channel resistance being tested at $180-190. Price recovered from $104 capitulation low. Currently $170, RSI 47 climbing from oversold. First green weekly off the 0.886 fib bounce. Flow layer (today, $53.5M premium, 483 trades): Net -$8.8M bear. Most active strike $200C at $11.97M with majority SOLD on bid. Repeated $175C selling in the afternoon. Institutions systematically capping upside at $175-200 across multiple expiries. Probabilistic scenario map (15-day): Range-bound (45%): $147-$190 chop, BTC stays $73-78K Rejection (30%): Reject $190, retrace to $147-$144 Breakout (15%): BTC >$80K → MSTR $209-$238 Capitulation (10%): BTC