DAVID E. SANGER2026年4月21日 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesPresident Trump views himself as the master of coercive diplomacy, forcing his opponents to capitulate quickly to American demands or face the threat of attack.特朗普总统自视为强制外交的大师，他认为可以迫使对手迅速屈服于美国的要求，否则就会面临遭到攻击的威胁。But in dealing with Iran over the past six weeks, Mr. Trump has discovered that he is up against a nation that prides itself on resilience and delay. And never has that been more obvious than in recent days, when Mr. Trump has tried jawboning the Iranians by contending that they already surrendered — they “agreed to everything” he insisted on Friday, including turning over their “nuclear dust” — only to discover that patter doesn’t work with Iranian officials, who took to social media to declare he had made it all up.但在过去六周与伊朗打交道的过程中，特朗普发现，他面对的是一个以韧性和拖延为傲的国家。最近几天，这一特点表现得尤为明显：特朗普试图通过宣称伊朗已经投降来施压——他在周五坚称伊朗“同意了他所有要求”，包括交出他们的“核尘”——结果却发现这些辞令对伊朗官员不起作用。伊朗官员随后在社交媒体上发声，宣称特朗普完全是捏造事实。So over the next few days, assuming that Vice President JD Vance leaves for Islamabad on Tuesday for a second shot at agreeing to a “framework” for a deal, the two approaches are about to come into direct collision. If the stakes were not sky-high — the prospect of renewed combat in the Middle East, global energy shortages and the very real possibility that the surviving Iranian leaders emerge convinced they need a nuclear weapon more than ever — it would be a classic case study in negotiation styles.因此，在接下来的几天里，假设副总统JD·万斯于周二启程前往伊斯兰堡，为达成协议的“框架”进行第二次尝试，这两种截然不同的行事风格即将迎头相撞。如果不是这件事干系实在重大——中东重燃战火的可能性、全球能源短缺，以及幸存的伊朗领导人极有可能认定他们比以往任何时候都更需要核武器——这本将是研究谈判风格的经典案例。“Trump is impulsive and temperamental; Iran’s leadership is stubborn and tenacious,” said Robert Malley, who negotiated with the Iranians in the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear deal and again in a failed effort by the Biden administration.“特朗普冲动且喜怒无常；伊朗领导层则固执且顽强，”罗伯特·马利表示。他曾参与2015年伊朗核协议的谈判，并在拜登政府的一次失败尝试中再次与伊朗人交锋。“Trump demands immediate results; Iran’s leadership plays the long game," Mr. Malley continued. “Trump insists on a flashy, headline-grabbing outcome; Iran’s leadership sweats every detail. Trump believes brute force can compel obedience; Iran’s leadership is prepared to endure enormous pain rather than concede on core interests.”“特朗普要求立竿见影的结果；伊朗领导层则在打持久战，”马利接着说。“特朗普坚持要一个引人注目、能抢占头条的结果；伊朗领导层则对每一个细节都斤斤计较。特朗普相信蛮力能强迫服从；伊朗领导层则宁愿忍受巨大的痛苦，也不愿在核心利益上让步。”There is a reason the last big negotiation, completed 11 years ago, took the better part of two years, moving from secret talks with a then-new Iranian president with a pragmatic bent to a full-scale negotiation involving scores of meetings.11年前的上一次重大谈判耗时近两年，从与具有务实倾向的新任伊朗总统的秘密会谈发展到包括数十次会议的全面谈判，这并非没有原因。The final agreement ran more than 160 pages long, including five technical annexes that defined the limits on Iran’s nuclear activities, the pacing of sanctions relief and, most importantly, Iran’s obligations to comply with inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Every page, and most provisions, triggered an argument; just when old issues were resolved, and some kind of agreement seemed in place, the Iranian negotiators would arrive with new demands.最终达成的协议长达160多页，其中包括五个技术附件，界定了伊朗核活动的限制、制裁解除的步调，以及最重要的是，伊朗配合国际原子能机构检查的义务。每一页，甚至大多数条款，都引发过争论；就在老问题解决、某种协议似乎即将达成时，伊朗谈判代表又会带着新的要求出现。The Iranians have their own complaints about the Americans. The accord that was ultimately reached — not signed, because it was not a formal treaty — in 2015 was overturned by Mr. Trump in 2018. Ever since, the Iranians have made the point that it is pointless to negotiate with one president if the next one is going to scrap the resulting agreement.伊朗人对美国人也有自己的抱怨。2015年最终达成的协议——之所以没有正式签署，是因为它并非正式条约——在2018年被特朗普推翻。从那时起，伊朗人一直强调，如果下一任总统会废除达成的协议，那么与这一任总统谈判毫无意义。More recently, Iranian officials have noted that twice in a row, in June 2025 and again this February, Mr. Trump has ordered attacks on Iran in the midst of diplomatic negotiations. The Iranians cast this as perfidy, evidence that Mr. Trump is not a reliable interlocutor.更近的情况是，伊朗官员指出，在2025年6月和今年2月，特朗普曾连续两次在外交谈判期间下令攻击伊朗。伊朗人将这视为背信弃义，证明特朗普不是一个可靠的对话者。And the distrust turned into gunfire over the weekend, near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian boats opened fire on two freighters that they said were breaking out of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’s strict control of who can, and cannot, sail through the Strait. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy shot out the engine room of a huge Iranian-flagged container ship, which the Navy has now seized. Mr. Trump noted that the ship had been sanctioned by the Treasury in 2020, at the end of his first term, for a “prior history of illegal activity.”这种不信任在上周末演变为真枪实弹的交火。伊朗船只向两艘货轮开火，称其试图冲破伊朗革命卫队对海峡通行的严格管制。周日，美国海军击毁了一艘悬挂伊朗国旗的巨型集装箱船的轮机舱，目前海军已扣押该船。特朗普指出，这艘船曾在2020年（他第一任期结束时）因“存在非法活动记录”受到财政部制裁。“We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.“我们已完全控制了这艘船，正在查看船上有什么！”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。One way to interpret these moves is that they are efforts to shape the negotiating sessions, just as generals try to shape the battlefield. The Iranians are demonstrating that no matter what happens or what they give up, they will be able to control commerce across the strait and charge millions of dollars for passage. The Trump administration is demonstrating that it is willing to reopen hostilities if negotiations fail.对这些举动的一种解读是，这是在努力塑造谈判局面，就像将军试图塑造战场一样。伊朗人正在展示，无论发生什么或他们放弃什么，他们都能控制海峡的贸易，并收取数百万美元的通行费用。特朗普政府则正在展示，如果谈判失败，它愿意重启敌对行动。Mr. Trump reinforced that point on Sunday, writing that a good deal is on the table.特朗普在周日强调了这一点，称一份理想的协议已摆在桌面上。“I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY.”“我希望他们接受，因为如果不接受，美国将摧毁伊朗的每一座发电厂和每一座桥梁。不再客气了。”It was the latest example of how Mr. Trump has veered from complimenting Iran’s new leaders, who replaced those killed in the strikes that began Feb. 28, as “more reasonable” than their predecessors, to warning them of more violence ahead if he doesn’t get his way.这是特朗普最新的一次态度摇摆——从称赞在2月28日开始的空袭中上任的新领导人比其前任“更理性”，到威胁如果他们不按他的意愿行事，将面临更多暴力。But while that is a new element in the talks, the cultural divide in how to negotiate is not.尽管这是谈判中的新变数，但双方在谈判方式上的文化隔阂并不是新鲜事。That divide was evident 11 years ago, in the gilded halls of the 160-year-old Beau-Rivage Palace Hotel in Lausanne, Switzerland, where Secretary of State John Kerry and his counterparts from five other countries struggled to close a preliminary agreement with Iran. It was, perhaps, the closest analogue to what is unfolding now in Islamabad.这种隔阂在11年前就已显而易见，当时在瑞士洛桑拥有160年历史的博里瓦日皇宫酒店镀金大厅里，美国国务卿约翰·克里与其他五国外长艰难地试图与伊朗达成初步协议。这或许是与当前在伊斯兰堡上演的情形最为接近的先例。Every day the American delegation would speak about how many centrifuges had to be disassembled and how much uranium needed to be shipped out of country. Yet when Iranian officials — including Abbas Araghchi, now the Iranian foreign minister, stepped out of the elegant, chandeliered rooms to brief reporters, most of the questions about those details were waved away. The Iranians talked about preserving respect for their rights and Iran’s sovereignty.美国代表团每天都会谈论必须拆除多少台离心机，以及需要运出多少铀。然而，当伊朗官员——包括现任伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格希——走出优雅的水晶吊灯房间向记者通报情况时，大部分关于这些细节的问题都被挥手挡开。伊朗人谈论的是维护其权利和伊朗的主权。“I remember we finally got the parameters agreed upon at the hotel,” Wendy Sherman, the chief U.S. negotiator at the time, said on Monday. “And then a few days later the supreme leader came out and said, ‘Actually, some very different terms were required.’”“我记得我们最终在酒店就基本框架达成了一致，”当时的美国首席谈判代表温迪·谢尔曼周一表示。“然后几天后，伊朗最高领袖出来说，‘实际上，我们需要一些非常不同的条款。’”Ms. Sherman, who went on to become deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration, would go into these negotiations with a large posse. She often had the C.I.A.’s top Iran expert in the room, or nearby. So was the energy secretary, Ernest Moniz, an expert in nuclear weapons design. Proposals floated by the Iranians would be sent back to the U.S. national laboratories, where weapons are designed and tested, for expert analysis of whether the agreements being discussed would keep Iran at least a year away from a bomb.谢尔曼后来在拜登政府担任副国务卿，她参加这些谈判时总是带着一大队人马。她通常会让中情局的顶级伊朗专家在场或随时待命。还有身为核武器设计专家的能源部长欧内斯特·莫尼兹。伊朗人提出的建议会被发回从事武器设计和测试的美国国家实验室，由专家分析所讨论的协议是否能使伊朗距离造出核弹至少还有一年时间。But Mr. Trump’s negotiating team travels light, with no entourage of experts and few briefings. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the president’s son-in-law and the special envoy, learned their negotiating skills in New York real estate and say a deal is a deal. They say they have immersed themselves in the details of the Iran program, and know it well.特朗普的谈判团队则轻装上阵，没有专家随行，也很少听取详细汇报。总统的女婿兼特使贾里德·库什纳和史蒂夫·维特科夫的谈判技巧是在纽约房地产行业学到的，他们认为协议就是做交易。他们表示自己已深入研究了伊朗核计划的细节，并且非常了解。Moreover, even if the issues they are facing are very much the same ones that the Obama-era negotiators faced, Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff see little value in spending hours poring over the diplomatic history, especially given what Mr. Trump had to say about the resulting agreement.此外，即使他们面临的问题与奥巴马时代的谈判代表所面临的非常相似，库什纳和维特科夫认为，花数小时钻研外交历史的价值不大，尤其是考虑到特朗普对最终协议会作何评价。But Mr. Trump is clearly sensitive about the coming comparisons. “The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” he said, using the acronym for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name for the 2015 accord. “It was a guaranteed Road to a Nuclear Weapon, which will not, and cannot, happen with the deal we’re working on.”但特朗普显然对即将到来的这种比较很敏感。“我们与伊朗达成的协议将远远好于JCPOA，”他说，JCPOA是2015年协议正式名称“联合全面行动计划”的缩写。“那份协议注定会导致核武器，而我们正在制定的协议绝不会、也绝不可能让这种情况发生。”And with that, Mr. Trump set up the test that his own negotiation, if successful, may be measured by.由此，特朗普也设下了衡量他自己谈判成功与否的考验标准。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。