Bengal Polls: ‘Cards Stacked Against Mamata but BJP Has Also Scored a Self-Goal’

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"Mamata Banerjee is obviously worried because the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] has targeted, through a computer, the constituencies she has won or winning, and slashed the winning margins with voter deletions," says former Trinamool Congress (TMC) Rajya Sabha MP Jawhar Sircar on the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise in West Bengal.In an exclusive interview with The Quint, Sircar, however, adds that the BJP has secured a "self-goal" in the state with the large number of deletions of Hindu voters—something the party hadn't expected. In September 2024, Sircar had created a stir by resigning as the TMC MP over the alleged rape and murder of a post-graduate trainee doctor at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital.In September 2024, Jawhar Sircar had created a stir by resigning as the TMC MP over the alleged rape and murder of a post-graduate trainee doctor at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital. The women-led movement that followed was "one of the biggest watershed moments I have seen in Bengal in many years," he recalls, adding that the fact that the TMC government ignored it "lit the fuse" of the disenchantment already brewing against the ruling government over corruption.Read the edited excerpts:It is being said that the upcoming 2026 West Bengal Assembly election is the first of its kind the state has ever seen. What is the electoral mood this year?The mood is rather grim, thanks to this ill-thought-out exercise called the SIR. Some may assert that Bengal is not new to vote manipulation or rigging. But never before in history has the electoral roll been tampered with in such a manner as has happened ahead of the 2026 polls. You see, initially, we took the "intensive revision" as a well-intentioned move by the ECI [Election Commission of India]. It is something the ECI undertakes from time to time. But, in time, we understood that this was not the usual revision.Unlike 2002, when the intensive revision took place, what's happening now is a "special" intensive revision of electoral rolls. The term "special intensive revision" has no legal standing—there is either an "intensive" revision or a "partial" revision (held between intensive revisions) or a "special" revision. The latter, as the name suggests, is meant for "special" situations, for instance, for flood-affected or disaster-struck areas. It's a short-term measure.This "special intensive revision" is something cooked up by the present Chief Election Commissioner [CEC] Gyanesh Kumar, and it has come with a package of problems. A new enumerative form, identity proofs of a painful order, and what not, and the burden has been borne by the citizens of India, not illigeal immigrants the SIR was purported to weed out.How is this SIR different from others? Ever since the first elections in the 1950s, the CECs have gone out of their way to ensure that voters are actually brought into the fold. This one has moved to repel or eject citizens from the voter list. "Revisions are a necessary part of elections because people change houses without informing, people pass away, and new people have to be added. But the scale and percentage of the present operation is frightening. The ECI has become a lawnmower looking to remove chunks of overgrowth, with the sole intention of deleting names."It isn't just West Bengal... massive number of names have been deleted in other states as well—be it Uttar Pradesh or Bihar. What is different about the SIR in Bengal is perhaps the visible objection to it.Now the Supreme Court has reconsidered, and has said that those appellants whose names are cleared on time can vote. But there are only 19 appellate tribunals... the former High Court judges heading them are only human beings. Even if they spend two minutes reading and deciding on each appeal, they will not get through 34.5 lakh registered appeals.SIR Impact in Bengal: Mamata’s Seat Sees 25% Voter Drop, Suvendu’s Just 3%Why is there more objection against the SIR in Bengal?It has affected a drastically high number of voters, to the extent that it feels like wilful targeting, especially of Muslims who make up 27 percent of the state's population, one of the highest across Indian states. The fact that the Supreme Court itself has admitted that, as per its records—now remember we have to go by its records because the CEC is refusing to publish any analytical records, in a manner which is almost obfuscatory—34.5 lakh people have made an appeal, so we can assume that 34.5 lakh people are there, and not being allowed to vote, because they are in appeal state. I would say, add another 10-15 lakh to that number... in my opinion, which puts this unjustifiable slashing at 50 lakh.This is because I believe many illterate or working-class people will not even know that their names have been struck off, untill they reach those booths on polling day. And the total number of officially deleted voters, including appellants, is above 90 lakh!We have never had such a drastic reduction of numbers during elections here. And a closer analysis of the data also shows that the intention for the SIR seems quite malafide.What do you think is the intention behind the SIR in Bengal, and the way it has been handled?I think it is to target minorities. I used the word malafide because a majority of the reductions have all taken place in the border districts. If you move west to Bankura, Birbhum, Hoogly, Howrah, and other hardcore Hindu belts, the deletions are fewer. If you move to Murshidabad, Maldah, Dinajpur, and other parts, including Nadia and South 24 Parganas, which have higher Muslim concentrations, the deletions are abnormally high.As per the Supreme Court data, about 34 percent deletions among the 91 lakh are Muslim names. The Muslim population in Bengal is 27 percent, so 7 percentage points more than their population share have been deleted.Anti-Muslim sentiment is an integral block of the RSS-BJP's Hindutva politics. They refuse to admit the phenomenon of the Bengali Muslim population of India. Because Bengal is a liberal state, many Muslims did not move to East Pakistan. Why would they leave their ancestral properties in these regions? So, Bengal has always had a sizable Muslim population.27 Lakh Deleted: Bengal's Voter Purge is Clustered In Minority & TMC BastionsIs it only an ideological or communal compulsion or electoral?The BJP-RSS are furious with that, because they assume that no Muslim will ever vote for them. One of the reasons they put forward for not winning in the state is because the 27 percent Muslim vote comes in the way of their margins everywhere. At least 72 constituencies are seriously affected by Muslim majority, intensity or influence, so the saffron brigade have focused on these 72 constituencies to ensure that the numbers get deleted, whether they exist or not, in such a manner that this time, the BJP candidate be assured that a lesser number of Muslims come to vote. This is the kind of fecilitation being done.I'll give you an example. In Assembly constituency no. 56 i.e. Shamsherganj of the Muslim-concentrated Murshidabad, statistics have revealed that of those whose names were under adjudication, 91 percent have been rejected. Isn't that abnormal? You can say it's been done by a judicial official, and not the RSS or the BJP. So what? Whether it's been done by a judicial officer or a military officer doesn't matter, they have been deleted—and the party in power approves.But it isn't just Muslim votes, right? Hindu votes have also been deleted. In fact, over 63 percent of 90 lakh+ deletions are Hindu names.Yes, it is a self-goal by the BJP. They were probably not expecting it. It just goes to show how little they understand Bengal. There's a large communitry of immigrants belonging to Hindu Scheduled Castes, who form the Matua community, and have come from East Bangladesh.The Matuas, in Nadia and South 24 Parganas, as well as through Bengal's border belts, have publicly maintained for a long time that they are Hindu refugees who came here fleeing religious persecution. And the Modi government promised them citizenship by bringing the CAA amendment, mainly to cater to the Matua votebank. It worked too. 'BJP Betrayed Us': Bengal's Matua Hindus Branded 'Infiltrators' After SIR PurgeBut now, the government is wary of its implementation. They have not been able to keep their word and give citizenship to this population of about a crore. Now, how many of them came up for this role revision is unsure, but one can be dead sure that a substantial part of the 63 percent deleted Hindus are Matua.Post this, those who had been voters of the Matua community are going to give it back to the BJP. First, the government has not kept its promise. And, second, it has allowed the ECI to run the show and delete lakhs of Matua names.Even as Scores Lose Voting Rights in Bengal, Matua 'First Family' Feud Rages onSo, is the TMC going to benefit from this? What about the impact of the deletions on the TMC?Now, Mamata Banerjee is obviously worried. Because they (the BJP) have targeted, through a computer, the constituencies she has won or winning, and slashed the winning margins with voter deletions. This is not a question that I am raising; it's a question Justice Joymalya Bagchi has raised again and again. He says, what happens if the winning margin is only 2 percent and 15 percent votes have been deleted? He's saying exactly what I am saying, and Mamata Banerjee may perhaps be thinking (the same). That the numbers have been stacked against her.Other than that, there is a serious anti-incumbency wave in Bengal. It's been going on for a long time. So, there is reason to believe that anti-incumbency will also play a role. Whether it will help the BJP or whether the number will move in favour of anti-incumbency candidates, either independent or from the Congress or the CPI(M), is yet to be seen. At least in some seats, this is likely.One can see a certain level of corruption even in local level leaders, councillors, bureaucrats, MLAs... A public servant who comes from modest destitution is now the affluent owner of a swanky high rise in the city, a flat in the outskirts, with imported cars to boot. This is a common story across Bengal. So, a person may choose to not vote for their TMC MLAs this time, and if they are not BJP voters, they are likely to look for alternative leaders.Would you say that anti-incumbency is trumping ideological difference?See, election after election, the narrative that Mamata Banerjee kept reiterating is that Bengal's culture is under threat. Which it is. This Hindi-Hindu-Hindutva ideology is entirely antithetical to Bengali cultural discourse and identity. She said that if you want to retain your culture and Bengaliness, vote for me. This narrative may not work this time.Though the culture really is and now under threat, perhaps more than ever, from imminent saffronisation, people may prefer to give their vote to somebody else. So, the understanding is, even if I don't give the vote to the BJP, I can still give it to somebody other than the TMC. It may not form the government, but at least it clears my conscience.Bengal Polls: BJP's 'Catla Fish' Push to Woo Non-Veg Voters Reeks of HypocrisyDid the RG Kar movement also have an impact on this question of conscience?Yes, the TMC should not have ignored it. The movement was one of the biggest watershed moments I have seen in Bengal in many years. It was astounding, the number of people, especially women, who came out against the TMC, a party known for its women voter core. And they persisted for three long months. The fact that many felt justice was not carried out or obstructed by the government added fuel to the allegations of corruption and red tape. There already was disenchantment against the government for a long time, RG Kar lit the fuse. On 14 August 2024, the night before Independence Day, at least 50-60 lakh people were out on the streets, hand in hand, chanting against the government. That was the biggest proof of anti-incumbency one could ever see. It wasn't about her performance as the chief minister as much as against the corruption that runs within her party members. The TMC has often been accused of doling out "freebies" to woo voters. How much impact do you think the government schemes like Lokkhir Bhandar, Shwastha Shathi, and Juba Shathi have? Despite criticism, over 18 lakh youth have signed up for the unemployment scheme—and influencers have been celebrating the increase in Lokkhir Bhandar.It's hard to say how successful these doles are in terms of being election factors anymore.First, despite Lokkhir Bhandar and Shwastha Sathi, these women, including beneficiaries of the state, took to the streets during RG Kar, demanding action against the TMC government. For months, they left their jobs and demanded justice, even the overthrowing of the TMC government. They swore, "Never again".Second, it's true, Mamata Banerjee and the TMC have been trying to spread the message that if she goes, the doles go. But, honestly, I feel that people now know that no matter who comes to power, these schemes will not go. BJP's Bid to Divide Bangla Rooted in Hindutva Politics of Linguistic ExclusionNo government, for instance, will tamper with Modi's free food scheme, even if he goes. That's because there's a felt need for free food in a nation of 80 crore. That these dole or subsidy schemes have become part of the systems, and the voter understands this.However, of course, the schemes are widely popular. There are certain sections that do feel that if Didi goes, some sections will become more disenfranchised. It cuts both ways.Do you think the BJP would have made better electoral gains, had it relented on the SIR in Bengal?Definitely. If it played decent, there was a massive anti-encumbency wave it could have ridden. But, instead, it chose to brand the entire population between 2002 and 2026 as suspect. It reveals a problem of attitude that makes one feel like a victim.At the same time, the CEC is obsessed with power. And his "loyalty" may end up costing the BJP more than just Bengal. But, for now, it seems it's the voter that has to pay the price.