Three-Month SOFR Futures: Two Arrows, One MessageThree-Month SOFR Futures (Dec 2028)CME_DL:SR3Z2028PandorraResearchWhen Buffett Meets the Strait: Three-Month SOFR Futures is quietly pricing in the next oil shock. 1. Set‑Up: Buffett’s Old Warning, Today’s New Straits Back in 2009, Warren Buffett warned that a geopolitical disaster could suddenly cut off millions of barrels of oil – the kind of left‑tail event that doesn’t care about your spreadsheet, only about your margin of safety. Fast‑forward to spring 2026: the key oil straits sit on the edge of closure, and major houses openly game‑out scenarios where Brent and WTI sustain prices north of 100 dollars a barrel and potentially a lot higher. With roughly 20% of global oil flows historically funneled through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, markets are finally waking up to the idea that supply chains are not just fragile – they’re binary. Either the strait is open, or it’s shut. Either refineries are fed, or they’re not. In that kind of world, interest‑rate expectations become the real battlefield, and that’s exactly where Three‑Month SOFR Futures (December 2028) step into the spotlight. The Chart: A Tightening Triangle Inside a Long Bear Channel Our @PandorraResearch monthly chart of SR3Z2028 – Three‑Month SOFR Futures (Dec 2028), price has spent years sliding inside a broad descending channel, capped near 99 3/4 on the upper boundary and potentially goes anchored by lows closer to 94 on the lower rail. In recent quarters, however, that sleepy grind has morphed into a classic tightening triangle, with higher lows quietly compressing against horizontal resistance around 97. Technically, 97 is the immediate line in the sand: it coincides with 52‑week as well as multi‑year highs, and a clean monthly breakout above that level opens the door toward 98 1/4, the next heavy congestion zone on the chart. In rate terms, that’s the market effectively pricing a softer policy path for the late‑2020s, a world where central banks are forced to lean back toward accommodation – whether by a growth scare, a credit accident, or a geopolitical oil shock that they can’t simply “talk down” at a press conference. Flip the coin, and the lower edge of the triangle points straight at 94. A downside break of that structure would signal a regime where the market buys into higher‑for‑longer – either because the growth damage from expensive energy proves limited, or because policymakers decide that inflation credibility matters more than smoothing out the equity curve. Oil at 100… 150… 200? What That Means for SOFR With crude already flirting with the 100‑dollar handle and option markets starting to whisper about 150 and even 200 per barrel tail scenarios, the risk is no longer just a short‑term spike – it’s a structural repricing of the energy complex. A prolonged choke in the straits would not only tighten physical balances; it would also export inflation through every shipping lane and every input cost spreadsheet on the planet. At first blush, that screams higher rates, not lower ones. Yet the December 2028 SOFR contract is sitting in that awkward zone where inflation risk and growth risk collide. Push oil toward 150–200, and at some point the demand destruction becomes too big to ignore: credit spreads widen, earnings revisions roll over, and central banks are forced to choose between headline inflation and systemic stability. Historically, when the rubber hits that particular road, they’ve tended to reach for the same old tool: easing into the shock. That’s where Buffett’s old warning and his war‑time playbook rhyme. He’s argued for decades that the worst move in crises is to hide in cash while real assets and quality businesses get repriced by panic. In 2026 he’s been happy to keep compounding into hard, cash‑flow‑rich franchises even as oil whipsaws around geopolitical headlines. Translating that mindset to the SOFR curve: when the crowd obsesses over the next 25‑basis‑point hike, Buffett is mentally playing several years down the field. 2.TradingView: Two Arrows, One Message Our @PandorraResearch chart quite literally draws two red arrows: one firing higher from the triangle break toward the mid‑channel region; the other dropping toward the lower boundary near 94. For traders, that’s not a forecast – it’s a playbook. A decisive monthly close above 97, especially if accompanied by another leg higher in oil and renewed recession chatter, would validate the “Buffett scenario”: policymakers ultimately capitulate to growth risk, and the curve prices a friendlier late‑2020s rate environment. A failure at 97 followed by a breakdown through the rising red trendline of the triangle points to a 94 test, where the market embraces a world of sticky inflation, persistent term premiums, and a central bank that talks tough because it has to. In other words, this is not the place to be directionally lazy. The chart is telling you that volatility is underpriced precisely when the macro narrative is running hot. Conclusion: Listening to the Oracle in a Noisy Market As the straits wobble and oil flirts with three‑digit quotes, Three‑Month SOFR Dec 2028 is the quiet kid in the back of the classroom, sharpening a very real macro knife. The tightening triangle near multi‑year highs isn’t just a pattern; it’s the market’s way of saying: pick a regime – but understand the tails. If Buffett were sketching this out on a napkin, he’d probably ignore the noise, circle the long‑term channel, and ask a simple question: where will real returns look attractive after the next oil shock is over? Traders don’t have the luxury of waiting decades, but they can at least trade with that mindset: respect the technical levels, price the geopolitical risk, and never forget that in a world of closing straits and opening triangles, liquidity can disappear faster than those “risk‑neutral” models say it should. Summary Our @PandorraResearch new idea exclusively links Buffett’s 2009 oil‑shock warning to today’s strait tensions, a potential 100–200 dollar crude regime, and a tightening triangle in Three‑Month SOFR Dec 2028 near 97, with upside toward 98 1/4 and downside toward 94. The piece frames two clear scenarios – dovish easing after an oil‑driven growth scare versus stubborn higher‑for‑longer – and turns them into a TradingView‑ready, technically grounded macro playbook. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team