USD/CAD gains after cooler CPI, eyes further upsideUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADcmcmarketsThe USD/CAD is rising slightly following a cooler-than-expected March CPI report. Headline CPI was expected to rise by 2.5% y/y but instead came in at 2.4% y/y. Core CPI also came in well below expectations, rising by 1.9% y/y versus estimates of 2.3%. This has contributed to a decline in the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike by December. As a result, the USD/CAD is now currently trading higher and attempting to reverse its downtrend after peaking at the beginning of April. The pair appears to have found support around the lower Bollinger Band and at an important technical level dating back to March. If USD/CAD holds support and rate hike odds continue to slip, the pair may move towards 1.376, where the 10-day exponential moving average currently resides. However, if the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen and breaks technical support at 1.369, then the pair could move lower towards the next support region around 1.34 to 1.35. This scenario remains possible because, for now, even though USD/CAD has bounced off its lower Bollinger Band, the RSI is still hovering around 39, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold and could decline further. However, if rate hike expectations from the Bank of Canada are reduced further or removed entirely, USD/CAD could continue to rise – particularly if oil prices begin to fall again. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.