Microsoft's Bear Case Is Hard To Buy

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Apr 21, 2026, 5:26 AM ETMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) Stock, MSFT:CA Stock, ZMSF:CA StockKonstantinos Kosmidis1.16K FollowersCommentsMicrosoft has faced a decisive rerating due to high CapEx tied to AI infrastructure, despite strong beats.MSFT's Q2 2026 showed robust revenue and income growth, but free cash flow declined and CapEx surged to $37.5B, fueling investor concerns over future ROI.Market fears of agentic AI disruption and OpenAI concentration risk have also been factors, but these risks are overstated.MSFT trades at 25.1x forward earnings, well below its 10-year median, with strong recurring revenue and momentum signaling potential for a major rerating ahead.HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIn the last six months, Microsoft (MSFT) shares have been falling. The selloff has been the strongest after the release of the earnings results for fiscal Q1 and Q2, as you can see below.This article was written byKonstantinos Kosmidis1.16K FollowersI began learning about markets and investing when I was 19 years old. My investing is informed by macro insights, fundamentals, and technical indicators. I have mostly written about ETFs, REITs, Banks, and the Magnificent 7 on Seeking Alpha. Currently, I am mostly interested in discovering value opportunities in the tech sector.When I'm neither working on my next article nor hunting for opportunities, I either run, box, cycle, swim, or lift weights.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Comments