Trump: Iran talks 'could be happening over next two days' in PakistanIMF lowers 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% priorUS March PPI final demand 4.0% y/y vs +4.7% expectedLebanon ambassador: The preliminary meeting with Israel was goodBessent: Trump hasn't opted to raise 10% tariff to 15% "at this time"ECB's Lagarde: We are between the baseline and adverse scenariosIran weighs pausing its Hormuz shipping to avoid derailing talksECB's Makhlouf: Not yet seeing changes in consumer behaviour from higher inflationMarkets:WTI crude oil down $6.84 to $92.24US 10-year yields down 4.9 bps to 4.248%Gold up $101 to $4840S&P 500 up 1.2%NZD leads, USD lagsIt was another big day for the peace trade as oil tumbled once again. All indications continue to point towards a deal with Trump talking about a second meeting in Pakistan and remaining positive on the contours of a deal. There wasn't much news on Lebanon but the headlines were somewhat constructive and it's not even clear if that's a deal braker. Iran is reportedly not testing the US Hormuz blockade and that points to progress as well.The risk is that it could all fall apart with a volatile dealmaker like Trump but so far it remains on track and that's why US stocks are now above where they were pre-war. Oil still has a long ways to go but the market is indicating that even if it doesn't get all the way back the progress has been good enough for the broader economy.It was a fairly unified trade and the dollar was broadly weaker. In terms of data, PPI was soft and if you exclude the war impacts, there is a growing argument that we're headed back to some kind of pre-2020 inflation regime where it's stubbornly low, particularly as AI disrupts the labor market. I'd argue that if the US turns of the fiscal taps, then that is an even-more compelling argument.For now though, the data is secondary and all eyes remain on the Middle East. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.