CHF/JPY surges back to highs as breakout pressure buildsSwiss Franc / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:CHFJPYFOREXcomAfter threatening to break the strong bullish trend in place since February 2025 in the early stages of the Iran war late last month, CHF/JPY has resumed its bullish trajectory over the past fortnight, bouncing strongly from beneath the 100-day moving average and springboarding back towards the record high of 204.00 set earlier this year, taking out the 50-day moving average along with resistance at 200.30 and 202.64 along the way. With RSI (14) trending higher above 50 while MACD has flipped positive after crossing the signal line from below last week, the message from the oscillators is increasingly bullish, with strengthening upside momentum improving the prospects of a breakout sticking. However, the bears have form at 204, having already repelled two bullish moves in the recent past. A doji printed on the daily chart on Tuesday, completing the second leg of a three-candle evening star pattern, putting emphasis on the price action on Wednesday. A close beneath 202.64 would strengthen the bearish reversal signal, especially given it would follow a strong bullish move beforehand. A close beneath 202.64 would also see the price settle more than halfway down Monday’s bullish candle, completing the evening star. That would put the 50-day moving average, the February 2025 uptrend and 200.30 support on the radar for potential downside targets. A clean break of the latter two would signal a possible trend change, opening the door to further downside should that scenario eventuate. If the bullish price action and momentum picture delivers a breakout, which is currently the preferred setup, longs may be considered above 204.00 with a tight stop beneath for protection. A close above 204 would strengthen conviction, with the preference to wait for subsequent topping patterns to assess whether to hold, cut or reverse rather than nominating a specific extension target. Good luck! DS