MICHAEL CROWLEY2026年4月22日本月早些时候，副总统万斯在伊斯兰堡与伊朗进行和平谈判。 Pool photo by Jacquelyn MartinPresident Trump and Iran’s leaders have wide differences on many issues, from nuclear technology to the Strait of Hormuz. But their main obstacle to striking a lasting peace agreement may be a matter of trust.特朗普与伊朗领导人在核技术、霍尔木兹海峡等诸多问题上分歧巨大，但双方达成持久和平协议的主要障碍或许是信任问题。Always wary of the United States, Iranian officials consider Mr. Trump particularly treacherous. They remember the way, during his first term as president, Mr. Trump simply abandoned a nuclear deal Iran had struck with the Obama administration and other world powers after nearly two years of negotiations. Mr. Trump did not claim that Iran was violating that deal; he simply didn’t like it.伊朗官员本就对美国处处提防，更认为特朗普尤其背信弃义。他们记得，在特朗普第一任总统任期内，他单方面撕毁了伊朗与奥巴马政府及其他世界大国经过近两年谈判达成的核协议。特朗普并未声称伊朗违反协议，只是单纯不喜欢这份协议。When the Biden administration tried to coax Iran into a similar agreement a few years later, Iran’s leadership demanded a guarantee that a future Trump administration would not simply tear it up again, according to former U.S. officials. They had no way of providing one.据前美国官员透露，几年后拜登政府试图劝说伊朗重新达成类似协议时，伊朗领导层要求得到保证：未来若特朗普再次上台，不会再次随意撕毁协议。而美方根本无法给出这样的保证。And twice over the past year, Mr. Trump has entered into diplomatic talks with Iran only to launch airstrikes while negotiations were still in their early stages. In late February, Mr. Trump sent envoys to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva just one day before Iran’s supreme leader was killed in an airstrike that began weeks of U.S. and Israeli bombing. By the time of that meeting, Mr. Trump had already committed to war, according to U.S. officials.过去一年里，特朗普还两次在与伊朗的外交谈判初期突然发动空袭。今年2月底，特朗普派特使前往日内瓦与伊朗官员会面，第二天伊朗最高领导人就在空袭中身亡，随后美以对伊朗进行了长达数周的轰炸。美方官员称，早在那次会面之前，特朗普就已经决定开战。After a first round of talks earlier this month ended in rancor, Iranian officials said a main reason was a U.S. failure to gain their trust. On Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance delayed his departure to Pakistan for a potential second round of talks, as Iranian officials again raised the point.本月早些时候第一轮谈判不欢而散后，伊朗官员表示，主要原因之一就是美国未能赢得他们的信任。周二，美国副总统万斯推迟了前往巴基斯坦举行第二轮潜在会谈的行程，伊朗官员再次重申了这一点。On Monday, Iranian state media reported that the country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had warned in a Sunday phone call with Pakistan’s prime minister that “the U.S. seeks to repeat previous patterns and betray diplomacy,” according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道，伊朗官方媒体周一称，总统佩泽什基安周日在与巴基斯坦总理通电话时警告：“美国试图重复之前的模式，背弃外交进程。”Fearful of being burned again, Iran is insisting on incremental steps and retaining leverage — such as at least partial control of its uranium stockpile for as long as possible. But experts said Iran faced a disadvantage because any plausible deal would require it to take steps that would ultimately be irreversible, such as eventually surrendering its uranium supply.因害怕再次被骗，伊朗坚持采取渐进步骤，并尽可能保留筹码，例如至少在较长时间内部分控制其铀库存。但专家表示，伊朗处于不利地位，因为任何可行协议最终都要求其采取不可逆转的举措，比如最终交出核材料。The distrust is a busy two-way street: The United States says that Iran has routinely lied for years by claiming its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes only, and points to uncovered evidence of Tehran’s past military nuclear research. Iran has also flouted its international commitments by building secret underground nuclear facilities.这种不信任是双向的。美国称，伊朗多年来一直谎称其核计划仅用于和平目的，并指出已发现德黑兰曾进行军事核研究的证据。伊朗还修建秘密地下核设施，公然违反了国际承诺。Mr. Trump has called Iran’s leaders “crazy,” “insane” and “lunatics.”特朗普曾称伊朗领导人“疯狂”“丧心病狂”，是“疯子”。“Iran has spent decades deceiving the world about its nuclear program, hiding facilities, concealing materials and activities, and feeding the International Atomic Energy Agency false or incomplete information,” said Michael Doran, a former senior national security official in the George W. Bush administration. “That record leaves no basis for confidence in Iran’s assurances about its intentions.”小布什政府前国家安全高级官员迈克尔·多伦说：“伊朗几十年来在核计划上欺骗世界，隐藏设施、隐瞒材料与活动，向国际原子能机构提供虚假或不完整信息。这段历史让人根本无法相信伊朗对其意图所作的保证。”During nuclear arms talks with the Soviet Union, President Ronald Reagan popularized the phrase “trust, but verify.” It is unclear whether Iran and the Trump administration can even meet that standard.里根总统在与苏联进行核军控谈判时，曾提出一句广为流传的名言：“信任，但要核查。”目前尚不清楚伊朗和特朗普政府能否达到这一标准。“The level of trust between the United States and Iran has always been very low, but now it is nonexistent,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员卡里姆·萨贾德普尔表示：“美伊之间的信任度向来极低，但如今已荡然无存。”“The Islamic Republic believes the United States could attack at any moment, including during negotiations, as Trump has done twice before,” he added. “Washington will never believe the Islamic Republic has renounced its nuclear weapons ambitions, even if it agrees to a compromise.”“伊朗伊斯兰共和国认为，美国随时可能发动袭击，包括在谈判期间，就像特朗普之前两次做的那样，”他还说。“而华盛顿永远不会相信伊朗放弃了核武器野心，即便伊朗同意妥协。”Iran has an added reason for skepticism in Mr. Trump’s military partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Mr. Netanyahu would like to resume the joint U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign as soon as an April 7 cease-fire agreement expires. Mr. Trump extended the truce on Tuesday, hours before the deadline.伊朗对特朗普与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的军事合作更是持怀疑态度。内塔尼亚胡希望4月7日停火协议一到期，就立刻重启美以联合轰炸。特朗普于周二在最后期限前几小时延长了停火期限。Iranian propaganda has depicted Mr. Trump as Mr. Netanyahu’s “puppet,” and Iranian officials surely fear that the Israeli prime minister, who made a strong original case for war at the White House, will persuade Mr. Trump to abandon diplomacy.伊朗宣传将特朗普描绘成内塔尼亚胡的“傀儡”，伊朗官员也十分担心，这位最初在白宫为开战提出强有力论据的以色列总理会说服特朗普放弃外交谈判。Despite it all, both Mr. Trump and Iran appear willing to give diplomacy a try. They would hardly be the first enemies to overcome deceit and betrayal and reach a successful agreement. During his first term, Mr. Trump himself struck a deal with the Afghan Taliban — Islamist radicals who had fought the United States for 20 years — to withdraw American troops from the country.尽管如此，特朗普与伊朗似乎仍愿意尝试外交途径。敌对双方克服欺骗与背叛达成协议的先例并不少见。特朗普第一任期内就曾与对抗美国20年的伊斯兰激进组织阿富汗塔利班达成协议，让美军撤出该国。Even if the two sides can overcome their expectations of treachery, the distrust complicates negotiations that Mr. Trump says can be concluded quickly. That is a blithe hope, according to veteran diplomats and Iran experts.即便双方能放下对彼此背信弃义的预判，这种不信任感仍会使谈判变得复杂，而特朗普声称谈判可以迅速达成，资深外交官和伊朗问题专家认为，这不过是种过于乐观的希望。Designing a deal will require calibrating its step-by-step implementation to minimize the opportunities for one side to obtain an advantage and walk away.设计协议需要精心安排分步执行流程，尽可能减少一方获取优势后退出协议的可能。“That too is complicated because most of the concessions required of Iran are concrete and irreversible, such as turning over or downblending its highly enriched uranium,” said Robert Malley, a lead negotiator with Iran during the Obama and Biden administrations.奥巴马和拜登政府时期的伊朗首席谈判代表罗伯特·马利说：“这也很复杂，因为要求伊朗做出的大多数让步都是具体且不可逆转的，比如交出高浓缩铀或将其稀释降级。”“In contrast, most of the expected U.S. concessions are notional and reversible, such as lifting sanctions or providing access to frozen assets,” he added.“相比之下，美国预计做出的让步大多是名义上且可逆的，比如解除制裁或解冻资产，”他还说。As a result, Mr. Malley said, Iran will insist “on a slow, incremental, step-by-step approach” to implementing any agreement, as a way to test Mr. Trump’s compliance.因此，马利表示，伊朗会坚持“缓慢、渐进、分步走”的协议执行方式，以此检验特朗普是否守约。But Mr. Trump, hardly known for his patience, may balk at that approach.但向来缺乏耐心的特朗普很可能拒绝这种模式。Looming over it all will be Iran’s memory of Mr. Trump’s abrogation of the Obama nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, under which Iran agreed to 15 years of limits on its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.笼罩在这一切之上的，是伊朗对特朗普撕毁奥巴马时期核协议的记忆。在那份名为“联合全面行动计划”的协议中，伊朗同意对核计划实施15年限制，以换取制裁解除。The agreement took some 20 months to negotiate, with Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and the European Union joining the United States and Iran in countless rounds of talks. All agreed that Iran was in compliance with the agreement — until Mr. Trump arrived at the White House.该协议谈判耗时约20个月，俄、中、英、德、法及欧盟与美伊举行了无数轮会谈。各方均确认伊朗履约，直到特朗普入主白宫。Calling the deal “a disaster,” Mr. Trump withdrew from it in 2018 and hammered Iran with new sanctions. In response, Tehran blew through the caps it had agreed to place on its nuclear program, enriching enough uranium to near-military grade levels to come within weeks of bomb-making capability. (Experts say it could still take Iran many months to build a nuclear bomb once it has refined enough uranium for the task.)特朗普称该协议是“灾难”，于2018年退出，并对伊朗实施新一轮严厉制裁。作为回应，伊朗突破了协议设定的核活动上限，将铀浓缩至接近武器级，数周内即可达到制造核弹的材料门槛。（专家表示，即便伊朗已提炼出足够制造核弹的铀，仍需数月时间才能制造出核弹。）Mr. Trump cited that nuclear progress as grounds for striking its nuclear facilities last June. The strikes, known as Operation Midnight Hammer, came as the U.S. and Iran were negotiating through Omani mediators.去年6月，特朗普以伊朗核进展为由，打击其核设施。这次名为“午夜之锤”的空袭发生时，美国与伊朗正通过阿曼调解人进行谈判。When Mr. Malley led indirect U.S. talks with Iran during the Biden administration, seeking to revive the Obama nuclear agreement, Iranian officials insisted on guarantees that the United States could not once again unilaterally withdraw from the deal. Mr. Malley insisted just as firmly that such a guarantee was not possible.马利在拜登政府时期主持与伊朗的间接谈判、试图恢复奥巴马核协议，当时伊朗官员坚持要求美国保证，不会再次单方面退出协议。马利则同样坚决地表示，这种保证根本不可能实现。“Given the depth of mistrust, as well as the sensitivity of the issues being negotiated, it’s very unlikely a deal of this magnitude can be negotiated over a few weeks,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “More commonly it has taken many months, if not years.”萨贾德普尔说：“考虑到双方不信任的深度，以及谈判议题的敏感性，如此重大的协议不可能在几周内谈成。通常需要数月，甚至数年的时间。”Michael Crowley是《纽约时报》报道美国国务院和外交政策的记者。他曾报道过近30个国家的新闻，并经常随国务卿出访。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。