ESWAR PRASAD2026年4月22日 E S Kibele YarmanThe war in Iran is having ripple effects worldwide. Rising energy, fertilizer and food prices will affect us all. From America, where consumers are paying $4 a gallon for gas, to rich European countries to large emerging market economies such as Brazil and China, no nation has been spared. Another group of countries, though, has suffered the most but received scant attention: the poorest countries.伊朗战争正在全世界产生涟漪效应。能源、化肥和食品价格的上涨将影响我们所有人。从消费者需支付每加仑4美元买汽油的美国，到富裕的欧洲国家，再到巴西和中国等大型新兴市场经济体，没有一个国家能够幸免。然而，还有另一类国家虽然遭受了最严重的打击，却很少受到关注：最贫穷的国家。Among them, nearly half of the average household’s spending goes to food and energy. With much of their populations at the edge of economic deprivation and with meager savings to fall back on, the price surge is a huge blow.在这些国家中，普通家庭近一半的支出都用于食物和能源。由于大部分人口处于经济匮乏的边缘，且赖以支撑的储蓄微乎其微，价格飙升对他们来说是一个巨大的打击。The Iran war is just the latest setback in the past several years to low-income and lower-middle-income countries, which have little ability to shield themselves from financial and geopolitical turmoil. President Trump’s tariffs, the crumbling of the post-World War II order, a failure to halt climate change and the onset of A.I. have all darkened the prospects of these poorer nations, in which some 3.8 billion people, nearly half the world’s population, live.伊朗战争只是过去几年里低收入和中低收入国家遭遇的最新挫折，这些国家几乎没有能力保护自己免受金融和地缘政治动荡的影响。特朗普总统的关税政策、二战后秩序的崩溃、未能遏制气候变化以及人工智能的到来都使这些较贫穷国家的前景蒙上阴影——全球约38亿人生活在这些国家，占世界人口近一半。This is hardly new. These countries, especially smaller ones, have always borne the brunt of global disorder, from wars to financial crises. Today, about 75 countries have average annual per capita incomes below $4,500, according to the World Bank. (The United States’ average per capita income, by contrast, is roughly $85,000.) Some of these nations’ problems are of their own making — the result of internal mismanagement and rampant corruption, which expose them to high levels of debt and inflation. But they also face strong external headwinds, and barring a few big exceptions, like India, these countries typically have no seat at the table at discussions about global issues that affect them profoundly.这并非新鲜事。这些国家——尤其是较小的国家——总是首当其冲地承受全球失序的冲击，无论是战争还是金融危机。根据世界银行的数据，如今约有75个国家的年均人均收入低于4500美元。（相比之下，美国的年均人均收入约为8.5万美元。）其中一些国家的问题源于自身的管理不善和猖獗腐败，这使它们面临高额债务和通货膨胀。但它们也面临着强劲的外部阻力；除了印度等少数例外，这些国家在讨论深刻影响其命运的重大全球议题时通常没有发言权。The latest wave of economic chaos is especially frustrating for poorer countries that seemed to have turned a corner. Many of them, including nations in sub-Saharan Africa, have improved their public finances, brought inflation under control and opened up their economies to global trade. Collectively, this group was poised to generate robust economic growth, drawing upon their many advantages, including abundant natural resources and growing young populations. While populations are graying and shrinking in many advanced economies, 70 percent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is under the age of 30.对于那些似乎已走出困境的较贫穷国家来说，最新的经济混乱尤其令人沮丧。包括撒哈拉以南非洲国家在内的许多国家已经改善了公共财政，控制了通胀，并向全球贸易开放了经济。作为一个整体，这类国家本准备利用其诸多优势——包括丰富的自然资源和不断增长的年轻人口——实现强劲的经济增长。当许多发达经济体的老龄化加剧且人口萎缩之际，撒哈拉以南非洲70%的人口年龄在30岁以下。Low-income countries heavily depend on imports of fertilizer, oil and gas, while many also import food. The spike in these commodities’ prices, along with falling values of countries’ currencies relative to the dollar, which is typically needed to pay for imports, is severely squeezing both household and government budgets. This will inevitably dent these nations’ growth prospects.低收入国家严重依赖化肥、石油和天然气的进口，许多国家还依赖粮食进口。这些大宗商品价格的飙升、各国货币兑美元汇率的下跌（进口通常需要美元支付）正严重挤压家庭和政府的预算。这将不可避免地削弱这些国家的增长前景。The Iran war and the geopolitical turmoil that it brings are not the only factors that could dash this progress.伊朗战争及其带来的地缘政治动荡并非唯一可能打破这一进展的因素。The rules-based order set up in the aftermath of the Great Depression and World War II, imperfect as it was, provided at least a moderately stable external environment. Now that order, typified by institutions such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, is crumbling. Under Mr. Trump, the United States is disengaging from institutions it once helped set up, as they are no longer seen as serving narrowly defined national interests. Wars have broken out in multiple spots such as Ukraine and Iran, and competition between the two superpowers, China and the United States, is intensifying.尽管并不完美，在大萧条和二战后建立的基于规则的秩序至少提供了适度稳定的外部环境。如今，这种以联合国和国际货币基金组织等机构为代表的秩序正在瓦解。在特朗普的领导下，美国正在退出其曾帮助建立的机构，因为这些机构不再被视为服务于狭隘的本国利益。乌克兰和伊朗等地爆发了战争，中美两个超级大国之间的竞争也在加剧。Instability is becoming the norm rather than merely a passing phase. When countries retreat from cooperation and go it alone, and when commerce and international relations are no longer governed by commonly accepted rules, low-income countries suffer the most.不稳定正成为常态，而不仅仅是一个过渡阶段。当各国放弃合作、单打独斗，当商业和国际关系不再受共同接受的规则管辖时，低收入国家受到的伤害最大。The fragmentation of global trade, after a long period in which it was seen as the basis for shared prosperity, also hurts. Many low-income countries are just now maturing and striving to integrate into the world economy. But they are finding the traditional path of export-led growth built on a strong manufacturing base blocked as tariff barriers go up around the world. Tariffs drive up the costs of imports to consumers, making it much harder for exporters to sell their goods in international markets.在很长一段时间里被视为共享繁荣基础的全球贸易走向分裂，同样造成伤害。许多低收入国家刚刚成熟并努力融入世界经济。但它们发现，随着世界各地关税壁垒的升高，建立在强大制造业基础上的出口导向型增长传统路径已被阻断。关税提高了消费者的进口成本，使得出口商在国际市场上销售产品变得更加困难。These countries need access to foreign financing, as they have low savings levels and their financial systems are not sufficiently developed to provide capital to entrepreneurs. The huge and rising debt levels of advanced economies are in effect denying low-income countries financing that they desperately need. Many investors prefer the safety of U.S. or Japanese government bonds rather than financing potentially more lucrative but riskier investments in low-income countries.这些国家需要获得外部融资，因为它们的储蓄水平较低，且金融体系不够发达，无法为企业家提供资本。发达经济体巨大且不断上升的债务水平实际上剥夺了低收入国家急需的资金。许多投资者宁愿选择美国或日本政府债券的安全性，也不愿为低收入国家潜在利润更高但风险更大的项目融资。The lack of consensus on issues like tackling climate change is hurting productivity in agriculture, the mainstay for some of these countries. The rising frequency of calamitous natural disasters is only making things worse.在应对气候变化等问题上缺乏共识正在损害农业生产力，而农业是其中一些国家的支柱。灾难性自然灾害频率的增加只会让情况变得更糟。A.I. is another complication that threatens to leave low-income countries behind. Even if some of them adopt A.I. effectively, there could be costs to social stability. At this year’s World Economic Forum conference in Davos, I met African entrepreneurs agog about the vistas that A.I. opened up, allowing their firms in both manufacturing and services to improve productivity and compete with foreign multinationals. But they had sobering assessments about the impact on employment. If it works to their advantage, A.I. might boost output yet still cause domestic strife by making entrepreneurs richer while reducing job prospects.人工智能是另一个可能会让低收入国家掉队的复杂因素。即使其中一些国家能有效采用人工智能，也可能付出社会不稳定的代价。在今年达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上，我遇到了对此感到兴奋的非洲企业家，他们认为人工智能开辟了广阔的前景，使其制造业和服务业公司能够提高生产力并与外国跨国公司竞争。但他们也对就业影响有着清醒的评估。如果人工智能对他们有利，它或许将提高产出，但同时也会因为企业家财富的增加和就业前景的恶化引发国内冲突。Can low-income countries shelter themselves from a hostile world? They can redouble efforts to get their own houses in order. Disciplined government budget policies would give them room to maneuver through increased social spending when shocks hit. Giving central banks more autonomy in managing monetary policy can help keep inflation under control and reduce the risk of capital flight. Managing and reducing reliance on foreign debt, and instead making their countries hospitable to more stable financing such as foreign direct investment, will help protect them from changes in global financial conditions. Most of all, they need to control the scourge of public corruption and reinforce their institutions, including a well-functioning judicial system that upholds the rule of law.低收入国家能保护自己免受这个充满敌意的世界的影响吗？它们可以加倍努力整顿内务。严明的政府预算政策将为它们在遭受冲击时通过增加社会支出来提供回旋余地。给予中央银行管理货币政策的更多自主权有助于控制通胀并降低资本外流的风险。管理和减少对外债务的依赖、转而让本国环境更有利于外国直接投资等更稳定的融资方式，这将有助于保护它们免受全球金融状况变化的影响。最重要的是，它们需要控制公共腐败这一祸害，并加强机构建设，包括维护法治的有效运作的司法系统。The harsh reality, though, is that in moments of global turmoil, vulnerable countries will inevitably suffer the most. It is fanciful to think that their problems will not affect richer and larger economies as well. Migrant flows born of economic desperation and the craving to escape civil strife will not stay bottled up. This will shape domestic politics in receiving countries, as has been starkly apparent in Europe and the United States in recent years.然而，残酷的现实是，在全球动荡时刻，脆弱的国家将不可避免地遭受最大的痛苦。认为它们的问题不会影响较富裕和较大的经济体是不切实际的。出于经济绝望和逃避内乱而产生的移民潮不会停留在原地。这将塑造接收国的国内政治，这一点近年来在欧洲和美国显而易见。Richer and more powerful countries do have a role to play in helping poorer countries, but doling out aid is not the answer. Reinforcing global institutions and the rules-based order governing international commerce will help everyone, but low-income countries in particular. Reining in budget deficits and ensuring financial stability will help reduce economic volatility. By doing the right things, richer countries could help themselves as well as their poorer counterparts.较富裕和更强大的国家在帮助较贫穷国家方面确实可以发挥作用，但发放援助并不是答案。加强全球机构和管辖国际商业的基于规则的秩序将对每个人都有帮助，尤其是低收入国家。控制预算赤字和确保金融稳定将有助于减少经济波动。通过做正确的事情，较富裕国家既可以帮助自己，又可以帮助较贫穷的伙伴国家。Eswar Prasad是康奈尔大学教授，也是布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员。他的新书是《末日循环：为什么世界经济秩序正在螺旋式地陷入混乱》。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。