Dollar rebounds as US stocks fail to catch a bidBalanced FOMC minutes keep January rate cut expectations in checkGold struggles persist as silver volatility intensifiesRecent S&P 500 weakness points to strong returns in 2026Final Trading Day of 2025The last session of 2025 is underway, with US stocks failing to deliver a last-minute rally to please craving bulls. The minutes of the December 10 FOMC meeting, which resulted in the third consecutive 25bps rate cut, confirmed the ongoing debate regarding the Fed’s dual mandate.Fed members remain split about the inflation outlook and the risk of further easing fueling the already elevated price pressures, while most agreed that there are downside risks to the labour market. Contrary to some bearish expectations, the Fed does not appear to be on an autopilot path towards consecutive rate cuts, meaning that the late-January meeting is not a “live” one at this stage, unless data materially alter the momentum.Notably, next week’s calendar is crammed with pivotal US releases, such as the ISM PMI surveys, ADP employment report, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Additionally, Fedspeak is expected to intensify next week.US Stocks Suffer, Dollar in Decent MoodUS equity indices are in the red this week, with the Russell 2000 index posting the steepest losses, disappointing the Santa Rally expectations. This correction in the S&P 500 index is led by consumer discretionary and material stocks, while the energy sector is among the few to post gains for the second consecutive week.Interestingly, despite the justified hype about technology stocks and AI, the Nasdaq 100 index is up 22% this year, underperforming the DAX 40 index and several Asian equity indices. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has gained 17% this year, with the communications and technology sectors leading the rally. In contrast, real estate and consumer staples stocks have significantly underperformed in 2025, rising just 1-2%, confirming that the US economy is still in the late-growth cycle phase.In the meantime, it has been an abysmal year for the US dollar. The greenback is posting gains this week across the board, courtesy of the less dovish-than-anticipated Fed minutes and, to a certain extent, the firmer Chinese PMI surveys boosting optimism for improved economic performance in 2026.Gold Under Pressure, Silver Is the Main CulpritThis dollar performance might also be contributing to gold’s correction. The precious metal is down 4.5% this week, the strongest weekly drop since mid-November 2025, the first week after the US presidential election.Considering the thin liquidity, the geopolitical developments and the fact that most investors tend to prefer a long position in gold during extended bank holiday periods, the main culprit for this correction is probably the erratic performance of silver.Tuesday’s near-full body recovery has been completely undone today, with the industrial metal struggling to remain above the $72 level. As already mentioned, silver has morphed into a speculative instrument in the past three months, climbing aggressively but also exhibiting signs of a bubble market.Judging from the recent crypto performance, one could even say that silver has stolen the thunder from bitcoin. Following an explosive 2024, the king of cryptos is set to close 2025 with 6% losses, miles better than the performance achieved by altcoins such as Cardano that is down 59% this year.What Does the Lack of a Santa Rally Mean for Next Year’s Stock Performance?Traditionally, investors monitor the performance of stocks during the first week of the new year to predict the yearly outcome. This tends to be an accurate predictor, as in 77% of the years when the S&P 500 index started the year on a positive note, it managed to post significant annual gains.Interestingly, our analysis extended to the predictive ability of stock performance in the last five days for each year – one version of the famous Santa Rally. Our findings show that when the last five-day performance of the S&P 500 index is negative – as it is at the moment – there is at least a 75% probability that this index in 2026 will achieve positive returns.