JPYUSD 1H Technical AnalysisJAPANESE YEN / U.S. DOLLARFX_IDC:JPYUSDHenrybillionJPYUSD 1H Technical Analysis: Range Compression Near 0.00638, Bounce-Then-Drop Scenario in Play JPYUSD (Japanese Yen vs U.S. Dollar) on the 1H chart is moving in a tight, choppy range after a strong impulse earlier in the session. Price is now sitting directly on a clearly defined base support around 0.00638, while multiple failed pushes higher suggest the market is still in distribution mode. The structure on your chart highlights a common end-of-range behavior: a controlled rebound (liquidity build) into resistance, followed by a sharp dump back toward the range floor. Today’s edge is to trade the boundaries and wait for confirmation at the key levels. Market Structure and Price Behavior (1H) After the initial flush, price recovered and rotated into a sideways structure. Multiple swing points formed around the same mid-band area, showing heavy supply absorption on rallies. The most recent candles are compressing near support, signaling a decision point: either a short rebound to rebalance, or direct continuation lower if support breaks. This is a classic “range compression before expansion” environment. Expect wicks and stop-runs around the marked lines. Key Support and Resistance Levels (Based on the Chart) Support Zones 0.006385–0.006380 (Primary support / decision base): current holding area. As long as price holds above it, a rebound is possible. 0.006370–0.006365 (Range floor target): the next major downside magnet if 0.00638 fails. 0.006360 (Major low / liquidity pool): previous extreme. If reached again, it becomes the main “reaction-or-break” zone. Resistance Zones 0.006395–0.006400 (First rebound cap): near-term resistance where bounce attempts often stall. 0.006410–0.006420 (Major supply): upper boundary of the recent distribution. Strong rejection probability on first touch. Fibonacci Map (How to Frame the Range) Use Fibonacci on the most recent visible swing (from the last local high near 0.00641–0.00642 down to the base near 0.00638): 0.382–0.50 retracement: typically lands around 0.006395–0.006402 (matches the first resistance zone) 0.618 retracement: often aligns with 0.00641 (matches upper supply boundary) If price cannot reclaim the 0.50–0.618 area, rallies are usually corrective and favor “sell-the-rip” logic. This Fib alignment supports a tactical plan: bounce into resistance first, then watch for a reversal signal. Trendline and Structure (Simple Read) A clean way to trade this is to draw a short-term descending trendline across the recent lower highs. If price keeps respecting that line while holding below the 0.00640–0.00641 band, it confirms sellers are still controlling the rebound. The bullish case only becomes valid if price reclaims 0.00641 and holds it with acceptance (multiple closes, not just a wick). EMA and RSI Confirmation (Intraday Rules) EMA When price is below the faster EMAs (EMA20/EMA50 on 1H), rebounds into resistance are often corrective. Bullish continuation improves only if price: reclaims EMA20, then holds above EMA50 while building higher lows. If EMAs are stacked down, treat bounces as short-lived. RSI RSI pushing back above 50 supports continuation higher. RSI failing under 50 during a rally into 0.00640–0.00641 increases rejection odds. If support breaks and RSI stays heavy, downside continuation becomes the higher-probability path. Intraday Trade Plans (Clean Triggers, Clear Invalidations) Plan A: Range Long From Base Support (Scalp-to-Swing Hybrid) Best when price prints rejection wicks and holds above the base. Entry idea: 0.006385–0.006380 after bullish confirmation Invalidation: 1H acceptance below 0.006370 Targets: TP1: 0.006395 TP2: 0.006400 TP3: 0.006410–0.006420 (only if momentum is strong) Key note: This is a “location trade.” If price bounces but cannot reclaim 0.00640, reduce exposure and protect. Plan B: Sell-the-Rally Into Supply (Best If Bounce Looks Weak) Best when the rebound shows weak closes and RSI cannot hold 50. Entry idea: rejection signal inside 0.006400–0.006420 Invalidation: 1H acceptance above 0.006420 Targets: TP1: 0.006385 TP2: 0.006370–0.006365 TP3: 0.006360 This aligns with the scenario drawn on your chart: rebound into liquidity, then drop to the floor. Plan C: Breakdown Sell Below 0.006370 (Continuation Setup) Best when support snaps and price re-tests it from below. Trigger: clean break + retest failure under 0.006370 Invalidation: reclaim back above 0.006380 Targets: TP1: 0.006365 TP2: 0.006360 Extension: only if downside momentum accelerates What to Watch During the Session If price holds the 0.00638 base and starts printing higher lows, expect a controlled rebound toward 0.00640 first. The zone 0.00640–0.00642 is the key decision ceiling. If price rejects there, the drop scenario becomes much more likely. A clean loss of 0.00637 shifts bias bearish and opens the path back to 0.00636. Risk Note This is a technical analysis view for education, not financial advice. Tight ranges can create false breaks and wicks. Keep risk fixed per trade and avoid chasing price in the middle of the range. If you want more 1H level maps like this using Fibonacci, trendlines, EMA, and RSI confirmation, follow and save this idea so you can reference the key zones for the next session.